Amazon, Flipkart entry won't disrupt quick commerce profitability: Elara Capital

Quick commerce is expected to enter a more execution-driven phase as competition intensifies, with profitability rather than discounting likely to determine long-term winners, according to Karan Taurani, Executive Vice President (EVP) at Elara Capital.

Taurani said the entry of large e-commerce companies such as Amazon, Flipkart and Reliance into quick commerce validates the business model instead of disrupting it.

He expects established players to focus on improving margins over the next several quarters, with execution becoming the key factor for valuations.

Taurani said the convergence between e-commerce and Swiggy is accelerating as consumer buying behaviour changes.

"Quick commerce is close to 10 to 15% of India's e-commerce market now."



He said quick commerce has expanded beyond groceries into categories such as beauty, personal care, apparel and accessories, making it an important market for e-commerce companies.



According to Taurani, the entry of Amazon and Flipkart signals that quick commerce has become a permanent part of India's retail landscape.

"The consumer behaviour will change permanently."

He believes the impact of new entrants is already reflected in listed quick commerce stocks, shifting investor attention to operational performance rather than market-entry announcements.

Taurani said companies that relied on discounts and price-led growth are now prioritising profitability. He expects Eternal Instamart to achieve contribution break-even in the June quarter of the fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27), although EBITDA break-even could still take around two-and-a-half years.

He added that Blinkit continues to be well positioned because of its profitability metrics and execution.

"Now it is all about internal execution."

Taurani said Amazon, Flipkart and Reliance are primarily using quick commerce to retain existing ecommerce customers rather than trigger another round of price war. Their quick commerce businesses currently account for only a small share of overall ecommerce orders, suggesting the focus is on improving customer experience instead of aggressive market-share gains.

He said there is room for three to five players to coexist as quick commerce expands into non-metro cities and newer product categories. Feedback from channel checks indicates adoption outside major cities has improved over the past six months, increasing the addressable market.



Among listed companies, Taurani continues to prefer Eternal, the parent of Blinkit, over Swiggy. He expects Blinkit to maintain its market position by improving profitability rather than chasing additional market share.

Taurani said sustained improvements in EBITDA margins and profitability over the next 10-12 quarters could lead to a re-rating in valuation multiples for leading quick commerce businesses.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

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