Nifty Outlook for July 31: Index set for winning weak defying global headwinds; 24,350 key hurdle to cross

After Wednesday's sharp rally, the Nifty50 extended its gains on Thursday (July 30), ending 66 points higher at 24,317.

The index opened on a flat note and traded in a narrow range for most of the session before witnessing strong buying in the final hour, recovering nearly 115 points from the day's low to end firmly in the green.

Among the Nifty50 constituents, Mahindra & Mahindra, Coal India and Eicher Motors emerged as the top gainers, while Adani Ports, HDFC Life Insurance and Shriram Finance were the biggest laggards.

Sectoral trends were mixed. Auto, Oil & Gas and Consumer Durables led the advances, while Realty, Financial Services and Chemicals ended as the worst-performing sectors.

The broader markets underperformed the benchmark. The Nifty Midcap 100 declined 0.35%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 slipped 0.56%.

The Indian rupee snapped its four-session winning streak, slipping 3 paise against the US dollar amid late-session dollar demand. Despite positive risk sentiment and sustained foreign inflows into equities and debt, geopolitical concerns limited further gains for the domestic currency.

According to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, the short-term trend for the Nifty remains positive.

He expects the index to consolidate around the 24,300 mark over the next one to two sessions before attempting a decisive breakout towards the 24,600-24,700 zone. Immediate support is seen at 24,150.

The Nifty has now rallied 737 points from last Friday's low of 23,580 and continues to trade above its 20-, 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages, signalling sustained bullish momentum.

Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities said the index tested the key resistance zone around 24,368, where the 200-day moving average coincides with the previous swing high.

A sustained move above 24,368 could pave the way for an advance towards 24,530, while the 24,040-24,140 zone is expected to provide immediate support on any decline, Shah added.

Rupak De of LKP Securities said the Nifty remained range-bound through most of the session, reflecting the absence of a clear directional trigger.

However, the broader trend remains positive, with the potential to move towards 24,500 in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 24,200, below which momentum could weaken.

Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty opened lower and extended its decline during the first half, slipping to an intraday low of 56,769. Strong buying at lower levels helped the index recoup most of its losses, although it still ended 0.10% lower at 57,148.

The Bank Nifty has been consolidating within the 56,672-57,330 range over the last four sessions.

Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities said immediate resistance is placed in the 57,500-57,600 zone. A sustained move above this range could trigger a rally towards 58,000, followed by 58,400. On the downside, immediate support is seen between 56,600 and 56,700.