Vodafone Idea share price can rise 143% from current levels? Jefferies explains a scenario analysis

Global investment banking firm Jefferies has highlighted two potential scenarios for telecom service provider Vodafone Idea Ltd.,

in its latest note on Tuesday, October 27, one of which sees the stock rising 143% from current levels.

Jefferies either sees the stock falling to ₹9 in a bear case scenario, or rising to as high as ₹29 in a bull case scenario. The bull case scenario implies an upside potential of 143% from current levels.

In its base case, Jefferies has cut its price target for Vodafone Idea to ₹16 from ₹20 earlier. The revised price target implies an upside potential of 34% from current levels.

Vodafone Idea's stock has corrected nearly 23% from the recent highs despite improving subscriber trends, according to Jefferies, and as a result, at 21 times Enterprise Value-to-Cash EBITDA multiple, the stock is trading below its five-year average multiple, thereby making risk-reward attractive.

The ongoing network rollouts, along with tariff hikes, should position Vodafone Idea to see a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11% for its revenue and 25% for its EBITDA over financial year 2026-2029, according to the Jefferies note.

For the same period, Jefferies expects Vodafone Idea's sites on network to expand by 26% to 2,61,000, which should not only boost gross subscriber addition, as they are directly co-related to the size of the network, but also help reduce churn due to better network experience.

The firm anticipates a 6 million increase in Vodafone Idea's subscriber base over financial year 2027-2029, which should in-turn support a better translation of tariffs hikes into revenue.

Given Vodafone Idea's high operating leverage, Jefferies estimates every 10% tariff hike to drive a 17% increase in Vodafone Idea's cash EBITDA, resulting a 38% increase in the company's market capitalization.

As part of its bull case scenario, Jefferies is pricing in a cumulative tariff hike of 25% over financial year 2027-2029 and its price target of ₹29 implies a valuation of 22 times EV / Cash EBITDA.

On the flip side, Jefferies has a bear case price target of ₹9 for Vodafone Idea, which assumes no tariff hikes for financial year 2027-2029 and a valuation of 18 times EV/EBITDA.

22 analysts have coverage on Vodafone Idea, of which 10 have a "sell" rating, eight say "hold", and only four of them have a "buy" recommendation. The consensus estimate of price targets implies no upside potential from current levels.

Shares of Vodafone Idea are trading 2% higher on Tuesday at ₹12.18. The stock is down 10% in the last one month, thereby trimming its 2026 advance to just 5%.