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What is the story about?
Gold and silver prices in India witnessed volatility on Thursday (April 9), tracking mixed global cues and heightened geopolitical uncertainty following fresh tensions in the West Asia. While international prices held largely steady, domestic futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) edged lower in trade.
Domestic prices slip from recent highs
MCX gold futures fell by ₹475 to ₹1.51 lakh per 10 grams (24-karat). Silver futures also declined sharply, dropping ₹3,318 to trade near ₹2.36 lakh per kilogram.
The pullback comes after both metals saw recent gains, with analysts noting that prices are currently moving in a narrow range as markets assess evolving global risks.
Global trends steady but cautious
In international markets, spot gold hovered above $4,720 per ounce, rising marginally by 0.1% to $4,721.51 an ounce. However, US gold futures for June delivery were down 0.7% at $4,744.90 an ounce.
Market participants remained cautious amid uncertainty over the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire.
“Gold is not looking to do much at this moment… there is still a lot of speculation on what’s going to happen after the ceasefire,” Brian Lan, Managing Director at GoldSilver Central, said, adding that prices could consolidate in the near term.
Geopolitical risks keep safe-haven demand in focus
Recent Israeli strikes on Lebanon and concerns over potential retaliation from Iran have kept geopolitical risks elevated. Reports of disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz—a key global oil supply route—have also added to market nervousness.
These developments have pushed oil prices higher, raising inflation concerns and influencing expectations around interest rates—key factors that typically impact demand for non-yielding assets like gold.
Despite safe-haven demand, gold has declined over 10% since the conflict began in late February, as rising energy prices and inflation expectations have led investors to reassess the outlook for monetary policy.
Macro cues and Fed policy in focus
Minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s March meeting indicated that some policymakers see the possibility of further rate hikes if inflation remains elevated. Higher interest rates tend to weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.
Investors are now awaiting key US inflation data, including Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures and upcoming consumer price data, for clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.
Outlook: Range-bound with upside bias
Analysts expect gold and silver to remain range-bound in the near term, with price movements driven by a combination of geopolitical developments, inflation trends, oil prices, and dollar strength.
According to Augmont Enterprise Private, precious metals are currently “caught between ceasefire optimism and escalating regional risks,” with safe-haven demand supported by geopolitical tensions but gains capped by macro uncertainties.
The firm noted that gold has seen a technical breakout above $4,800 per ounce (around ₹1.53 lakh per 10 grams), indicating bullish momentum, with a potential upside target of $5,000 per ounce (₹1.59 lakh per 10 grams). Silver has also broken above $76.50 per ounce (around ₹2.43 lakh per kg), with further upside targets at $82 and $87 per ounce.
-With Reuters inputs
Domestic prices slip from recent highs
MCX gold futures fell by ₹475 to ₹1.51 lakh per 10 grams (24-karat). Silver futures also declined sharply, dropping ₹3,318 to trade near ₹2.36 lakh per kilogram.
The pullback comes after both metals saw recent gains, with analysts noting that prices are currently moving in a narrow range as markets assess evolving global risks.
Global trends steady but cautious
In international markets, spot gold hovered above $4,720 per ounce, rising marginally by 0.1% to $4,721.51 an ounce. However, US gold futures for June delivery were down 0.7% at $4,744.90 an ounce.
Market participants remained cautious amid uncertainty over the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire.
“Gold is not looking to do much at this moment… there is still a lot of speculation on what’s going to happen after the ceasefire,” Brian Lan, Managing Director at GoldSilver Central, said, adding that prices could consolidate in the near term.
Geopolitical risks keep safe-haven demand in focus
Recent Israeli strikes on Lebanon and concerns over potential retaliation from Iran have kept geopolitical risks elevated. Reports of disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz—a key global oil supply route—have also added to market nervousness.
These developments have pushed oil prices higher, raising inflation concerns and influencing expectations around interest rates—key factors that typically impact demand for non-yielding assets like gold.
Despite safe-haven demand, gold has declined over 10% since the conflict began in late February, as rising energy prices and inflation expectations have led investors to reassess the outlook for monetary policy.
Macro cues and Fed policy in focus
Minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s March meeting indicated that some policymakers see the possibility of further rate hikes if inflation remains elevated. Higher interest rates tend to weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.
Investors are now awaiting key US inflation data, including Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures and upcoming consumer price data, for clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.
Outlook: Range-bound with upside bias
Analysts expect gold and silver to remain range-bound in the near term, with price movements driven by a combination of geopolitical developments, inflation trends, oil prices, and dollar strength.
According to Augmont Enterprise Private, precious metals are currently “caught between ceasefire optimism and escalating regional risks,” with safe-haven demand supported by geopolitical tensions but gains capped by macro uncertainties.
The firm noted that gold has seen a technical breakout above $4,800 per ounce (around ₹1.53 lakh per 10 grams), indicating bullish momentum, with a potential upside target of $5,000 per ounce (₹1.59 lakh per 10 grams). Silver has also broken above $76.50 per ounce (around ₹2.43 lakh per kg), with further upside targets at $82 and $87 per ounce.
-With Reuters inputs
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