NTPC shares likely to react to Q3 results miss, potential announcements in Budget 2026

Shares of NTPC Ltd

. are expected to open mildly lower on Sunday, February 1, after the company reported its December quarter results.

On a standalone basis, revenue declined 1.8% year-on-year to ₹40,643 crore, missing Street estimates of ₹43,100 crore. EBITDA remained largely flat at ₹11,991 crore versus ₹11,975 crore a year ago, though it came in below the poll estimate of ₹12,360 crore.

Margins improved to 29.5% from 28.9% last year, while net profit rose 5.8% to ₹4,987 crore, broadly in line with expectations.

On the positive side, NTPC achieved its thermal capacity addition target for FY26 and maintained its capacity targets for FY27 and FY28.

Management also cited a recovery in power demand during December 2025 and January 2026, which is expected to support strong plant load factors in the fourth quarter of FY26.

However, the quarter was impacted by weaker demand on a year-on-year basis, resulting in lower PLFs.

Standalone regulated equity growth remains modest, with only 6.5 GW of commissioning planned over FY26 to FY28. NTPC Green Energy also lagged on execution, commissioning just 2.1 GW in the first nine months of FY26 against a full year target of 5 GW.

Profitability at NTPC Green declined sharply by 73% year-on-year, largely due to losses at the joint venture level.

In addition, tendering plans have been moderated, with 4 GW now planned to be awarded in FY27 instead of closure by FY26.

As of the quarter, NTPC's standalone regulated equity stood at ₹94,415 crore, while consolidated regulated equity was ₹1,18,970 crore.

During Q3, the company added 1,744 MW of capacity, including 800 MW of thermal, 694 MW of renewable energy and 250 MW of pumped storage. An additional 468 MW was added in January 2026, taking total capacity additions in FY26 so far to 6,615 MW.

Coal-based plants reported a PLF of 70.7% in the quarter, higher than the all India average of 60.8%.

Management also pointed out that draft CERC regulations allowing battery energy storage systems at thermal plants could enable better peak hour support.

The SHANTI Act was cited as providing clarity on nuclear power sales, driving future nuclear capacity additions. Peak power demand is expected to touch 245 GW in FY26, while non solar peak demand has already reached 237 GW.