Meesho IPO Listing: GMP signals up to 40% gains on debut; what should investors do?

After Meesho's ₹5,421 crore initial public offering closed with a stellar 79 times subscription, the much-anticipated tech unicorn is set for its Dalal Street debut on Wednesday, December 10 — one of the most closely tracked listings of the year.

Grey market indicators and analyst estimates point to listing gains of around 30-40% when the stock begins trading today.

Meesho shares were quoting a 39% premium in the grey market, an informal ecosystem where shares trade before allotment and up to the listing day. Investors often track this grey market premium (GMP) to gauge likely listing levels.

Analysts expect the stock to open with a 25-30% premium. Prashanth Tapse of Mehta Equities projects a listing in the ₹139-₹144 range, implying a 25-30% upside to the issue price, led by strong subscription momentum and robust investor appetite for the company's asset-light, high-growth marketplace model.

Given the possibility of 25-30% listing gains, Tapse said short-term investors may look to book profits on debut, while those with a higher risk appetite could consider holding the stock for 12-18 months, as Meesho provides exposure to one of India's fastest-scaling, value-driven e-commerce platforms.

The SoftBank-backed e-commerce firm saw 79 times subscription on the final day of bidding. Qualified institutional buyers led demand with 120 times subscription, followed by non-institutional investors at 38 times, while the retail portion was subscribed 19 times.

The public issue comprised a ₹4,250 crore fresh issue and an offer for sale of ₹1,171.2 crore by existing shareholders.

At the upper end of the price band, Meesho's market capitalisation is estimated to be close to ₹50,000 crore, with promoter shareholding expected to fall from 19.08% to 16.76%.

Ahead of the IPO, Meesho raised ₹2,439.5 crore from anchor investors, who were allotted 21.98 crore shares at ₹111 each.

Domestic mutual funds such as SBI, Aditya Birla Sun Life, Axis and HSBC picked up 9.37 crore shares, accounting for 43% of the anchor book. Global investors including the Government of Singapore, Tiger Global, BlackRock, Fidelity and Morgan Stanley also participated.

Founded in 2015, Meesho operates a multi-sided technology platform connecting consumers, sellers, logistics providers and content creators. Its core marketplace revenue comes from seller services like fulfilment, advertising and analytical insights.

Kotak Capital, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Axis Capital and Citigroup acted as book-running lead managers.