US tariffs hit Andhra shrimp exports; rising uncertainty pushes farmers toward fish farming

“From December and January, business to the US has almost been nil. There is no visibility for February and March either, and the industry will be hit very badly,” Jagadish Thota, promoter of Jagadeesh Marine Exports says, while walking around his processing unit in Bhimavaram in Andhra Pradhesh.

A few kilometers away, Subramanyam walks along one of the ponds at his shrimp farm. “You cannot predict a good harvest anymore,” he says, adding that shrimp farming was once seen as a very profitable form of livelihood, but today, breaking even has become a major challenge, and that he’s looking to move away from shrimp farming.

These are not isolated voices. They echo across Bhimavaram and the surrounding aquaculture belt of coastal Andhra Pradesh, India’s largest shrimp-producing region, as exporters and farmers confront the fallout of steep US tariffs that threaten to destabilise an industry built almost entirely around overseas demand.

Andhra Pradesh is the backbone of India’s shrimp economy. The state accounts for nearly 80% of India’s shrimp exports and about 34 percent of the country’s total marine export value. According to the state fisheries department, shrimp exports from Andhra Pradesh in 2024–25 stood at over 3.6 lakh metric tonnes, valued at more than ₹21,000 crore.

But that scale has also made the state uniquely vulnerable. Nearly 48% of India’s shrimp exports are shipped to the United States, India’s single largest market. With cumulative US duties including anti-dumping duty, countervailing duty and the latest Trump-era tariff now totalling 58.26%, the impact has landed hardest on Andhra Pradesh.

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For exporters, the immediate pain has come in the form of evaporating orders. Thota says the US once accounted for nearly 70% of his company’s revenue, but its barely 10% now.

“In the post-August period, after the additional tariffs, there was a huge fall in sales to the US I lost almost 20% of that business in August itself, but we got some orders because our clients were stocking up for festive season there. But from December and January, it is almost nil. Hardly 10% of our sales are to the US right now.”

Shipments under long-term contracts continued through September and October, allowing exporters to push out containers despite the higher duties. That buffer has now ended.

For Ganga Ram Irrinki, CEO of Suryamitra Exim, being an exporter of value-added products ensured orders trickled in till December at least, due to lack of other options, but there is no visibility on orders in the near future.

The slowdown is already visible on factory floors. Processing plants that once ran at full capacity are now operating at a fraction of their potential.

“My unit was running at around 50% capacity through August, September and November. But in December and January, it has come down to just 25 percent,” Thota adds.

Exporter margins, already thin, have slipped further. Industry executives say margins have fallen to around 5%, barely enough to keep operations running.

India’s competitors have seized on the tariff gap. Ecuador and Indonesia, the two largest rivals in the US shrimp market, face tariff rates of roughly 25 to 30%, almost half of what Indian exporters pay.

“Ecuador and Indonesia are trying to give lower prices because their tariff burden is much lower at 20-25%. We are at 50 to 55%. For exporters with 8 to 10% margins, it is not viable to cut prices,” Irrinki says.

While exporters warn of an impending demand shock, farmers say their distress began well before tariffs entered the picture. Shrimp farming typically involves an investment of ₹30 to ₹35 lakh per crop cycle, which lasts two to three months. Many farmers say they are barely breaking even.

“We had a good harvest in 2020, but there was no market during the pandemic,” Subramanyam says. “When things improved, disease hit us. In this crop cycle alone, my brother and I have already faced a loss of almost ₹10 lakh. There is no guarantee of a good harvest anymore.”

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Ravi Babu, a shrimp farmer and industry expert, said disease has been the dominant problem over the past year.

“Farmers are more impacted by virus and disease. Tariff is secondary. White spot disease was terrible in 2025. Prices for 40-count shrimp have fallen from ₹380 per kilo to around ₹340,” he adds.

With exporters slowing procurement, farmers fear prices could crash further once the next harvest arrives.

“When raw material enters the market in bulk and there are no orders from the other side, prices will collapse,” Thota warned. “Right now, only the dollar is keeping us alive. The rupee’s fall has been a lifeline.”

The stress is already reshaping the farming landscape. While Andhra Pradesh has over six lakh acres of potential pond area, reports from January 2026 suggest active shrimp cultivation has dropped to roughly one lakh acres, as farmers shift to fish farming in search of more predictable returns.

“Shrimp farming is like taking care of a child from morning to night, and you need to be extrmeley careful of every parameter. Fish farming is different. They grow without much work. They don’t get you a price as good as shrimp, but in today’s time, at least there is some guarantee that you will get something,” Subramanyam added.

Meanwhile, the Andhra Pradesh government says it has acted quickly to soften the blow. In September 2025, Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu wrote to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and Fisheries Minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh, saying the tariffs may have caused a loss of Rs 25,000 crore to India’s shrimp exporters, requesting government support for Andhra's aquaculture sector.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Special Chief Secretary for Fisheries Rama Shankar Naik said that while there was initial panic, but the state stepped in by alerting the Marine Products Export Development Authority (MPEDA)  and respective Union ministries.

According to Naik, the state has provided nearly ₹800 crore in subsidies to aquaculture farmers, including concessional electricity at ₹1.50 per unit and negotiated feed price reductions of about ₹4 per kg. Banks have been asked to extend soft loans to exporters and farmers, he added.

He added that the government has helped open up alternative markets such as the EU, UK, Russia, South Korea and Japan for exporters. “Through regular consultations with stakeholders, we have successfully opened new markets in the USSR, South Korea, Japan, and especially the EU and UK markets through FTA agreements. While our exporters initially faced problems and had to pay heavy duties to push containers to the US, South East Asian countries like Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam have also imported a lot of our smaller 60, 80, and 100-count shrimp. We have also started addressing gap areas like pond registration and good management practices at the state level,” he said.

However, exporters maintain that shifting to other markets is far easier said than done.

“There are other markets like Europe, but it is never comparable with the U.S. Most of our facilities are built for U.S. business. Russia has approved very few Indian plants. China buys only basic, headless shrimp that is 20 to 30 percent cheaper than the value-added products we make for the U.S,” Thota says.

Gangaram echoed that view, saying no other market offers the same combination of volume and price realisation.

“The US contributes about 60 to 70% of total revenue for the country,” he said. “Consumers there can afford high-value cooked and ready-to-eat shrimp. Other markets like Japan, Vietnam or China may give volume, but the unit realisation is much lower. That directly impacts the farmer’s production cost.”

Exporters say they have been in continuous dialogue with both the Centre and the state government since the tariffs were announced.

“As an exporter and member of the National Committee for Seafood Exports, we are working keenly with the government to ensure the complete value chain from hatcheries and farmers is strong enough to take the blow. We’ve met the ministries multiple times. The government has sanctioned a 20% working capital limit as a temporary relief. But without orders, it becomes difficult to operate,” Gangaram said.

Thota said the additional credit facilities announced so far are short-term and already being exhausted. “Seventy percent of our business goes to the US Unless the Union government takes a strong stand and supports us until we stabilise, this will impact farmers and thousands of workers in processing units,” he added.

Despite the stress, exporters say they have so far avoided layoffs.

“These people are like family to us,” Thota said. “We have worked together for 20 to 25 years. We were hoping for clarity by December or January. If this continues, employment will be impacted.”

As February and March approach, uncertainty dominates the industry.

“What worries us is the next two months. Past data shows volumes were okay till December. But importers are waiting. Without tariff clarity, nobody wants to place fresh orders,” Gangaram says.

For India’s largest shrimp hub, the coming months may determine whether this remains a temporary shock or becomes a longer-term reset.