GCPL shares rise up to 4% as India drives Q4 momentum; analysts positive despite cost pressures

Shares of Godrej Consumer Products

Ltd. gained around 4% on Tuesday, April 7, after the company’s Q4 business update signalled steady growth momentum across key markets.

In India, the company expects to deliver double-digit underlying sales growth, supported by high single-digit volume expansion. Excluding soaps, volume growth continues to remain in double digits, while EBITDA margins are likely to stay within the normative range.

On the international front, Indonesia is showing signs of stabilisation with mid-single-digit volume growth. Other markets, including Africa, the US and the Middle East, are expected to post double-digit sales growth.

At the consolidated level, GCPL is likely to report double-digit revenue growth, with EBITDA growth broadly in line with revenue.

Brokerages remain constructive on the stock. Citi has a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹1,425, citing that the Q4 update reflects stronger-than-expected momentum, with near double-digit revenue growth ahead of its estimates.

The brokerage highlighted continued improvement in the India business, with estimated domestic revenue growth of around 10.5%, alongside stabilisation in Indonesia and sustained strength in the Africa, US and Middle East cluster.

Citi also said that profitability remains intact, with no immediate impact from commodity inflation. While management has guided for 6-9% cost inflation in FY27, it remains confident of mitigating this through calibrated pricing, cost efficiencies, operating leverage and media optimisation.

Nomura has also maintained a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹1,525, expecting EBITDA growth of around 11-12% YoY, broadly in line with estimates.

The brokerage highlighted strong India volume growth and expects the company to sustain profitability despite near-term cost pressures.

Macquarie, however, termed the update a mixed bag, maintaining an ‘Outperform’ rating with a target price of ₹1,340.

It flagged strong India performance and stable margins, but pointed to weaker-than-expected international margins as a drag on overall profitability.

Despite this, the brokerage said management’s confidence in achieving FY27 earnings targets even amid commodity inflation.