RBI may have spent $30 billion to shore up rupee in just four months

The recovery in the Indian rupee on Wednesday — the best in seven months — is widely attributed to an intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) after the local currency hit a new all-time low earlier this week.

The Indian central bank has been reportedly shoring up the currency in the face of a seemingly relentless slide.

"RBI has intervened around $18 billion in the forex market during June-Sept, and we have estimated (by looking at the forward market data) another about $10 billion in October 2025. So, the total amount stands at around $30 billion, while forex reserves declined by $15 billion during the same period," SBI Research said in its report on Wednesday.

RBI's forex reserves stood at $687 billion as on December 5, significantly less than the $703 billion recorded in June this year. Despite the intervention, the rupee's decline has only accelerated.

The fall in the value of the rupee has come as a relief for exporters constrained by the US tariffs that kicked in earlier this year. The latest trade data for November 2025 showed a 19% jump in exports and an 11% jump in exports to the US.

"In the labour-intensive sectors, where we have very less import intensity, like apparel, textiles, carpet, toys, sports goods, and agriculture products, it is helping us a lot," Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Exporters Organisations (FIEO), told CNBC-TV18 today (Dec 18).

However, he also explained that the benefit is in the profit margin, with added support from the appreciation in other peer currencies, and not in terms of added sales.

Currency	Year-to-date Dec 17
Indian Rupee	-5.92%
Indonesia Rupiah	-3.50%
Philippine Peso	-1.70%
Malaysian Ringgit	9.49%
Thai Baht	8.16%

The margin boost from the weakening rupee may just be temporary, fear exporters. The much-awaited trade deal between the US and India can provide a lasting solution. 

"Unless the tariff goes away, or some resolution is found to the penal tariff of 25% we may find that the demand going forward may slow down, as today, both the brands and the suppliers are bearing the extra cost," said S Ganapathi, the vice chairman and managing director of Gokaldas Exports. 

A trade deal between India and the US was widely expected to be clinched by November, and since it didn't materialise, the fall in the currency became faster in December, resulting in the rupee's fastest decline in 12 years. 

Foreign portfolio investors have sold over $18 billion worth of Indian equities in the secondary market, as of December 17, adding more pressure on the currency. 

SBI Research expects a strong rebound in the rupee only in the second half of the next financial year ending March 2027.

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