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What is the story about?
After Friday's modest pullback, the benchmark Nifty50 resumed its decline on Monday, falling 118 points to close at 23,779.15. The index slipped below the key 23,800 level as heightened geopolitical tensions and elevated crude oil prices weighed on sentiment.
The Nifty opened 14 points lower and remained under pressure through most of the session, hitting an intraday low of 23,633. The index recovered around 20 points during the closing auction session, limiting the overall decline.
The latest fall takes the Nifty more than 1,000 points below its early-August swing high of 24,774. The index also ended at its lowest closing level in nearly two months.
The breach of 23,800 assumes significance from a technical perspective, with analysts now watching the 23,600-23,700 zone for the next potential support.
Among Nifty 50 stocks, Apollo Hospitals, Larsen & Toubro and Coal India were the top gainers, while Infosys, SBI Life and HDFC Life emerged as the biggest laggards.
Sectoral performance remained weak, with Pharma and Healthcare emerging as the only sectors to finish in the green. Media, IT and Realty stocks faced the strongest selling pressure.
The broader market also remained mixed. The Nifty Midcap 100 declined 0.46%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 edged up 0.02%.
Nifty outlook: What next?
The near-term market setup remains cautious as investors contend with elevated crude prices, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude rose towards $97.5 a barrel on Monday as the latest escalation between the US and Iran heightened concerns around oil supplies through the key shipping route.
Against this backdrop, analysts expect volatility to remain elevated and see limited room for a sustained recovery unless the index reclaims key resistance levels.
According to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, the underlying trend remains negative, with the Nifty showing lacklustre movement. With the index slipping below the immediate support of 23,800, the next downside level to watch is around 23,600, while 24,000 remains the immediate resistance.
Osho Krishan of Angel One sees potential support in the 23,650-23,600 zone, followed by the more crucial 23,500 mark. Given the sharp decline and continued weakness on the charts, he recommends a cautious approach and advises traders to avoid aggressive positions. On the upside, 23,900 is likely to act as the first resistance, followed by the 24,000-24,050 zone.
Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities said the Nifty has breached its previous swing low of 23,786, opening the way towards the next support around 23,600. On the upside, 24,000 is expected to remain a strong hurdle for any near-term recovery.
Rupak De of LKP Securities said the Nifty continues to remain weak after slipping below its rising channel. The index is also trading below its falling 50-day exponential moving average, indicating that selling pressure remains strong.
De expects the index to remain under pressure in the near term, with 23,700-23,620 emerging as the next potential downside zone. On the higher side, 23,900 remains the immediate resistance.
Bank Nifty outlook
The banking benchmark also ended lower on Monday. However, Bank Nifty has remained range-bound over the past 24 trading sessions, moving within a roughly 1,254-point range and lacking a clear directional trend.
According to Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities, the 57,500-57,600 zone is likely to act as immediate resistance, while 56,800-56,700 remains an important support area.
Other market cues to watch
With crude prices and geopolitical developments likely to remain key drivers, investors will also track global economic data and upcoming domestic events.
The 57th GST Council meeting has been rescheduled to October 7 from September 12, with the change coming amid the scheduling clash with the BRICS Leaders' Summit in New Delhi.
On the data front, EU GDP is due later today, followed by Japan GDP tomorrow.
Meanwhile, India's primary market remains active despite the weakness in secondary markets, with 12 IPOs scheduled to open during September 7-11, seeking to raise a combined amount of around ₹7,000 crore.
The Nifty opened 14 points lower and remained under pressure through most of the session, hitting an intraday low of 23,633. The index recovered around 20 points during the closing auction session, limiting the overall decline.
The latest fall takes the Nifty more than 1,000 points below its early-August swing high of 24,774. The index also ended at its lowest closing level in nearly two months.
The breach of 23,800 assumes significance from a technical perspective, with analysts now watching the 23,600-23,700 zone for the next potential support.
Among Nifty 50 stocks, Apollo Hospitals, Larsen & Toubro and Coal India were the top gainers, while Infosys, SBI Life and HDFC Life emerged as the biggest laggards.
Sectoral performance remained weak, with Pharma and Healthcare emerging as the only sectors to finish in the green. Media, IT and Realty stocks faced the strongest selling pressure.
The broader market also remained mixed. The Nifty Midcap 100 declined 0.46%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 edged up 0.02%.
Nifty outlook: What next?
The near-term market setup remains cautious as investors contend with elevated crude prices, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude rose towards $97.5 a barrel on Monday as the latest escalation between the US and Iran heightened concerns around oil supplies through the key shipping route.
Against this backdrop, analysts expect volatility to remain elevated and see limited room for a sustained recovery unless the index reclaims key resistance levels.
According to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, the underlying trend remains negative, with the Nifty showing lacklustre movement. With the index slipping below the immediate support of 23,800, the next downside level to watch is around 23,600, while 24,000 remains the immediate resistance.
Osho Krishan of Angel One sees potential support in the 23,650-23,600 zone, followed by the more crucial 23,500 mark. Given the sharp decline and continued weakness on the charts, he recommends a cautious approach and advises traders to avoid aggressive positions. On the upside, 23,900 is likely to act as the first resistance, followed by the 24,000-24,050 zone.
Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities said the Nifty has breached its previous swing low of 23,786, opening the way towards the next support around 23,600. On the upside, 24,000 is expected to remain a strong hurdle for any near-term recovery.
Rupak De of LKP Securities said the Nifty continues to remain weak after slipping below its rising channel. The index is also trading below its falling 50-day exponential moving average, indicating that selling pressure remains strong.
De expects the index to remain under pressure in the near term, with 23,700-23,620 emerging as the next potential downside zone. On the higher side, 23,900 remains the immediate resistance.
Bank Nifty outlook
The banking benchmark also ended lower on Monday. However, Bank Nifty has remained range-bound over the past 24 trading sessions, moving within a roughly 1,254-point range and lacking a clear directional trend.
According to Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities, the 57,500-57,600 zone is likely to act as immediate resistance, while 56,800-56,700 remains an important support area.
Other market cues to watch
With crude prices and geopolitical developments likely to remain key drivers, investors will also track global economic data and upcoming domestic events.
The 57th GST Council meeting has been rescheduled to October 7 from September 12, with the change coming amid the scheduling clash with the BRICS Leaders' Summit in New Delhi.
On the data front, EU GDP is due later today, followed by Japan GDP tomorrow.
Meanwhile, India's primary market remains active despite the weakness in secondary markets, with 12 IPOs scheduled to open during September 7-11, seeking to raise a combined amount of around ₹7,000 crore.
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