IndiGo share price bull, bear and base case as laid out by UBS with 31% upside potential

Shares of IndiGo continue to remain in focus on Friday, December 12, ahead of the company's CEO meeting regulators and a writ petition being filed against the airline in the High Court.

Brokerage firm UBS has laid out three scenarios for IndiGo's future prospects, while maintaining its "buy" recommendation on the stock and a price target of ₹6,350, which implies a potential upside of 31% from Thursday's closing.

"IndiGo's situation continues to evolve, with the regulator enforcing strict measures such as curtailing the winter schedules and deploying officers to IndiGo's offices," UBS said in its note.

Here's a look at the scenario analysis listed out by UBS for IndiGo's road ahead:

Bull Case Scenario

Under this scenario, UBS assumes that all the required pilots, which are close to 900 in number across financial year 2026 and 2027, are hired to comply with the FDTL norms at the same cost of existing pilots and with a slightly higher cost of compliance.

The bull case scenario also factors in no major change in yield, Available Seat Kilometer (ASK) and Revenue Per Seat Kilometer (RPK) assumptions compared to the pre-disruption levels.

Base Case

UBS assumes in its base case that only 70% of the required pilots, or around 630 of them are hired over financial year 2026 and 2027 at a 3% higher salary than existing pilot costs, along with an increase in compliance costs.

With the airline running on a reduced number of pilots, the ASK, RPK and Yield assumptions get cut accordingly, the brokerage wrote.

Bear Case

UBS' bear case assumes only 50% of the required pilots are hired over financial year 2026 and 2027 at 10% higher salaries compared to existing pilot costs, along with an increase in compliance costs.

As the airline will run on even lesser pilots in the bear case, the ASK, RPK and yield assumptions will get cut accordingly.

"we continue to monitor developments closely and our estimates could be subject to review depending on actions that the government and regulator may decide to take," UBS wrote in its note.

26 analysts have coverage on IndiGo, where 21 have a "buy" rating, two say "hold", while three have a "sell" rating on the stock.

Shares of IndiGo are trading 0.5% higher on Friday at ₹4,835. The stock has nearly given up all the gains that it had made in 2025 after the recent correction.