Trade Setup for November 14: Nifty moves choppy but further action hinges on Bihar poll outcome

The Nifty remained volatile on Thursday ahead of the Bihar election results, with an extension of today's volatility expected in Friday's session.

After a steady recovery over the past few sessions, the index faced stiff resistance around the 26,000 mark and ended flat amid heightened intraday swings.

The market opened on a positive note and surged higher through the morning, with the Nifty hitting an intraday high of 26,010. However, momentum reversed sharply after 1:45 pm, as the index slipped nearly 144 points from its peak.

Despite late profit booking, Nifty managed to close marginally higher by 3 points at 25,779.

Among key gainers on the Nifty were Asian Paints, Hindalco, and IndiGo, while Eternal, Tata Motors (Commercial Vehicles), and M&M came under pressure and ended as the top laggards.

Sectorally, the performance was mixed. Metal, Realty, and Pharma indices led the gains, while PSU Bank, Media, and FMCG indices ended lower. The broader markets underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 falling 0.4% each.

On the policy front, the Union Cabinet approved a ₹45,060 crore support package for exporters, including ₹20,000 crore in credit guarantees for collateral-free loans and ₹25,060 crore over six years for trade finance, logistics, and market-access support.

The package aims to boost competitiveness and cushion exporters against the impact of recent US tariff actions.

Globally, investors await key US macro data releases, including Core CPI and Initial Jobless Claims, due later today.

According to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, the near-term trend for Nifty remains positive, but volatility could persist ahead of the Bihar assembly results on November 14.

He sees support around 25,750-25,700 levels, while a sustained move above 26,000 could drive the index towards 26,300 next week.

Rupak De of LKP Securities mentioned immediate resistance at 26,000, adding that a decisive move above this level could trigger a rally towards 26,200-26,350. On the downside, support lies near 25,800, below which the current momentum may weaken.

Nilesh Jain of Centrum Broking said that Nifty continues to encounter a psychological barrier near 26,000, and a breakout above this level is crucial for further upside.

"Support has now shifted higher to 25,700, aligning with the 21-day moving average," he said, adding that the broader trend remains bullish and any pullback can be viewed as a buying opportunity.

Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities pegged immediate resistances at 26,100 and 26,277, with support near 25,715.

For the Bank Nifty, Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities expects support between 57,900-57,800, cautioning that a breach below 57,800 could extend the decline towards 57,400.

Conversely, a breakout above 58,600 could drive the index towards 59,000 in the short term, he added.