Venezuela stock market surges 50% in a single session — Did it pre-empt the US action?

The Venezuela IBC Index, based in Caracas, surged 50% in a single trading session on Tuesday, January 6, extending their gains after the US attack on the country, which led to the capture of its long-standing President Nicolas Maduro.

The IBC index surged 50% on Tuesday, extending their gains having risen another 16% on Monday.

However, price action appears to suggest that the market may have pre-empted a potential US attack soon.

On Monday, December 29, the index had seen a gain of 22%, followed by another 7% advance on Friday, January 2, when trading resumed after the New Year holiday.

The US launched an attack on Venezuela on the intervening night of Friday and Saturday, which led to Maduro's arrest along with his wife. Maduro now faces trial in the US over various charges including narco-terrorism.

With this move, the index is now up 87% in just two trading sessions of January. Barring November 2025, the index had gained in every single month of last year, taking the annual return last year to 1,644%.

The Venezuela stock market began trading in 2018, according to available data. The index surged 4,400% in 2019, 1,380% in 2020, and since then, it has delivered a minimum return of at least 100% over the next four years, with the least being 106% in 2024.

Year	Returns (%)
2019	4,400
2020	1,380
2021	344
2022	254
2023	176
2024	106
2025	1,644

To be updated with more.