Oil could climb back to $150 if ceasefire breaks down, warns FGE's Iman Nasseri

Iman Nasseri, Managing Director – Middle East Research, FGE NexantECA, said the recent correction in crude prices may not sustain, as geopolitical risks continue to influence the market.

He explained that earlier gains in oil prices were largely driven by geopolitical risk premiums linked to supply disruptions, and the post-ceasefire decline reflects only partial easing of those risks.

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Nasseri said prices could move back towards $120 per barrel and rise to $140–150 by May–June if supply disruptions persist, especially through key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

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He added that the ceasefire remains uncertain, with continued violations affecting shipping flows, while futures markets have yet to fully reflect the risk of prolonged disruption and may adjust closer to spot prices if tensions continue.

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