Hindalco offers favourable risk-reward, says HSBC; sees stock at ₹1,430

Shares of Hindalco Industries

Ltd. were trading nearly 2% lower on Monday despite a bullish view from global brokerage HSBC, which reiterated its 'Buy' rating on the stock and maintained a price target of ₹1,430 per share.

At the current market price of ₹1,071.90, HSBC's target implies a potential upside of around 31%.

The brokerage said that while benchmark aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have remained firm, physical aluminium premiums have risen sharply, with recent offers crossing $450 per tonne.

HSBC believes the stronger pricing environment could support earnings growth for the company.

Factoring in prevailing LME aluminium prices, the USD-INR exchange rate and sulfuric acid costs, HSBC has raised its FY28 EBITDA estimate by 9%. Based on these assumptions, the brokerage's fair value estimate for Hindalco has increased to ₹1,740 per share.

HSBC also expects the recent underperformance in the stock to reverse as Novelis, Hindalco's North American subsidiary, normalises operations following the Oswego plant fire and benefits from a favourable aluminium pricing environment.

The brokerage said that Hindalco is currently trading at 4.6 times enterprise value-to-EBITDA based on spot LME prices, which it believes offers an attractive risk-reward proposition.

Despite Monday's decline, Hindalco shares have gained nearly 20% so far in 2026.