Dixon Technologies shares set for their worst year since 2018; CLSA warns of FY26 guidance cut

Shares of Dixon Technologies Ltd. fell nearly 4% on Monday, December 29, marking their sixth straight day of losses and declining to levels last seen in August 2024.

With Monday's fall, the stock is now down 37% from its 52-week high level of ₹18,700.

Here are five stats that have highlighted an otherwise forgettable year for its shareholders:

First, shares are down 34% so far in 2025. This is the worst drop in a calendar year for Dixon since 2018, which was its first full year of listing, when the stock fell 50%. The only other drop it has had in a calendar year is the 29% fall in 2022.

Year	Returns
2018	-51%
2019	84%
2020	254%
2021	105%
2022	-29%
2023	68%
2024	173%
2025 (YTD)	-34%

Second, the stock is down 19% so far in December. This is the worst month that the stock has had since January 2023, when the stock fell 31%.

Third, this is also the first time in its trading history that the stock has delivered negative returns for five months in a row. The previous highest is only three months on multiple instances in the past.

Month	Returns
December 2025	-19%
November 2025	-6%
October 2025	-5%
September 2025	-3%
August 2025	-1%

Fourth, 2025 also mirrors 2018, when the stock had delivered negative returns in 9 out of 12 months of the year. In 2024, the stock had gained in 11 out of the 12 months.

and lastly, the stock now trades close to its third-lowest price target of ₹11,563, from Morgan Stanley. Apart from Morgan Stanley, only Goldman Sachs (₹11,420) and Phillip Securities (₹9,085) have price targets lower than Dixon's current market price.

Looking forward to the month of January, the last four years have seen Dixon shares deliver negative returns in the first month of the year, with an average decline of 19%, including a 31% drop in January 2023 and 16% in January this year.

January Years	Returns
2025	-17%
2024	-9%
2023	-31%
2022	-20%
2021	5%
2020	23%
2019	10%

On Tuesday, brokerage firm CLSA cut its price target on Dixon Technologies to ₹15,800 from ₹18,800 earlier, stating that the near-term outlook for the company is cloudy due to tapering smart phone sales in the country and its key customers losing market share.

CLSA also stated that it expects Dixon's third quarter revenue growth to be flat with a sequential decline and that would pave the way for the company to cut its guidance in financial year 2026. However, it remains constructive on its medium-term thesis on the stock and hence maintained its "outperform" rating despite the cut in price target.

In its note earlier this month, Morgan Stanley had highlighted that the extension of the IT Hardware import norms are leading to growth uncertainty as other brands can continue to import under requisite licenses and disclosures.

The brokerage expects IT hardware to contribute 7% to Dixon's revenue in financial year 2030 but warns that the company may face challenges to meet its guidance in the coming years and that favourable import norms could pose a downside risk to its estimates.

Most of the street though, remains bullish on Dixon's prospects, with 27 out of the 35 analysts covering the stock having a "buy" rating on the stock, two say "hold", while six others have a "sell" rating. The consensus estimate of analyst price targets currently imply a potential upside of 51% for the stock from current levels.