Volatility to persist; stagger investments instead of timing market: Bajaj Finserv AMC CIO

A sharp recovery on Dalal Street on Thursday helped pare weekly losses, but benchmarks still ended lower for a sixth straight week as geopolitical uncertainty continued to weigh on sentiment. The Nifty Bank dragged indices, while IT and metal stocks offered some support.

Against this backdrop, Nimesh Chandan, Chief Investment Officer at Bajaj Finserv Asset Management Company, cautioned that market volatility is likely to persist and advised investors against trying to time the market.

“We are in a strange phase where there are sharp movements based on announcements and intent, and the market is extremely volatile. It is very difficult to predict the short term,” Chandan told CNBC-TV18, adding that investors and advisors should “stagger their purchases” as uncertainty around the global environment remains elevated.

He pointed to signals from commodity markets, particularly crude oil, to gauge evolving expectations. According to Chandan, the widening gap between six-month forward crude prices and spot prices suggests that markets are anticipating some easing of the ongoing conflict. While oil may not return to earlier lows of $60–65 per barrel, it could stabilise around $85–87, indicating a gradual normalisation in expectations.

At the same time, he acknowledged that predicting the trajectory of geopolitical conflicts remains inherently difficult.

“It is very difficult to predict when a war will end or when a ceasefire will be announced,” he said, noting that the focus should instead be on managing uncertainty through calibrated investing and by tracking a combination of indicators such as commodity trends, policy signals and diplomatic developments.

Chandan added that even though markets may react negatively to intermittent headlines, the emergence of trade discussions and mediation efforts suggests the possibility that the worst phase of the conflict may be behind. Rising economic costs for all parties could also drive de-escalation, he noted.

On market opportunities, the CIO said recent corrections have opened up attractive valuations beyond just large-cap stocks. He highlighted that a diversified portfolio of 50–70 high-quality companies with strong growth prospects and sound financials can now be built from the broader market universe.

However, behavioural biases continue to hold investors back. Chandan explained that fear of near-term losses and the influence of persistent negative news flow often deter investors from deploying capital during corrections.

“This is the kind of environment where investing requires more courage than intellect,” he said, adding that such phases have historically been periods when long-term wealth is created.

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On sectoral preferences, Chandan said pharmaceutical stocks have emerged as a relative safe haven amid uncertainty. While IT has traditionally benefited from currency depreciation, concerns around AI-led disruption have tempered investor appetite for the sector. In contrast, pharma companies, with their stable earnings profile and non-cyclical nature, are attracting flows.

He added that even in scenarios where the rupee strengthens, export-oriented pharmaceutical firms remain appealing due to their resilient cash flows, reinforcing their role as a defensive play in a slowing economic cycle.

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