What's likely to move markets in the next trading session on June 5?

Friday (June 5) is expected to be a key session for the stock markets as the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to announce its policy decision.

In addition, the government will release January–March quarter GDP data for FY26 in aftermarket hours. Reliance Industries’ dividend record date also falls on the same day.

RBI MPC meeting

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce the MPC decision at 10 am, followed by a press conference later in the day.

According to a CNBC-TV18 poll of economists, the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with all respondents forecasting a status quo on the repo rate at 5.25%. This suggests that policymakers are unlikely to take immediate action despite concerns around inflation and rising external risks.

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Most economists expect the central bank to look through the initial impact of higher oil prices, while market participants will closely watch the policy statement for forward guidance and broader monetary policy signals accompanying the decision.

India Q4 GDP data

The Centre will release the January–March quarter GDP data for FY26 along with full-year growth numbers on Friday at 4 pm. The government is scheduled to publish Q4 and annual FY26 GDP figures on June 5, with the full-year data released using the new base year 2022–23.

India’s economy is expected to have sustained its growth momentum in the January–March quarter of FY26, with a CNBC-TV18 poll projecting GDP growth at 7.3% for the quarter and 7.5% for the full financial year.

US markets

The S&P 500 fell on Thursday, June 3, as traders sold off chip stocks following a weaker-than-expected report from Broadcom. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged with investors moving to other parts of the market.

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The broad market index fell 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.8%. In contrast, the 30-stock Dow jumped 730 points, or 1.4%. UnitedHealth led gains on the Dow, rising 6%, while Walmart advanced 2%. If the gains hold, it would mark the Dow’s strongest single-day performance since April 30.

Reliance Industries dividend record date

Reliance Industries Ltd has set June 5 as the record date for its final dividend of ₹6 per share for FY26, which made June 4 the last day for investors to buy the stock to qualify for the payout. Back in April, Reliance Industries recommended a dividend of ₹6 per equity share of ₹10 for the financial year ended March 31, 2026.

Iran-US war

US President Donald Trump is reportedly reluctant to resume full-scale military conflict with Iran despite recent clashes, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing unnamed US officials.

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The report says Trump has told aides that the weeks-long ceasefire with Iran remains intact even amid sporadic violence. However, he has also indicated that he would consider ending the truce if Iranian forces kill American troops.