Gold and silver outlook: How investors should position as Fed cut bets rise, demand stays firm

Gold and silver eased on Thursday (November 27) as traders booked profits after the previous session’s rally, but expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December continue to anchor sentiment across global bullion markets.

Spot gold slipped 0.5% to $4,145.08 an ounce, while silver fell 0.9% to $52.89 an ounce.

In India, gold traded at ₹12,775 per gram (24k) and silver at ₹173 per gram, with domestic demand holding firm due to the peak wedding season.

Fed signals keep bullion range-bound

Conflicting remarks from Federal Reserve officials have pushed investors into a wait-and-watch mode, creating choppy but upward-leaning momentum for precious metals. Markets are pricing in a strong chance of a December cut, keeping Treasury yields near one-month lows and supporting non-yielding assets like gold.

“The Fed isn’t clear about what they’ll do next, so gold is just consolidating,” said Brian Lan of GoldSilver Central.

For now, gold remains sensitive to incoming US economic data, but traders say the broader backdrop still favours safe-haven buying.

Indian demand offsets global volatility

Domestic sentiment remains steady, supported by jewellery purchases and investor accumulation during the wedding season. According to Aksha Kamboj, Vice President, India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA) and Executive Chairperson, Aspect Global Ventures, gold continues to attract buyers as expectations of monetary easing make it a preferred hedge.

Silver, she noted, is benefiting from consistent industrial demand and reduced availability in the import market, which has helped maintain firmness despite global price swings.

Key trading range in focus

Analysts say bullion is likely to remain trapped in a broad range until clearer economic signals emerge.

Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities, pointed out that gold and silver are responding primarily to shifts in rate-cut expectations, with the dip in US yields providing support. Short-term traders are watching levels near $4,130 an ounce on gold and $52.65 an ounce on silver as key supports, while resistance zones around $4,200 an ounce and $53.90 an ounce remain difficult to breach.

The domestic market reflects a similar pattern, with prices largely oscillating within established bands.

Investment strategy: Use dips, pace allocations

With volatility driven almost entirely by macro signals, analysts recommend building exposure gradually rather than making large directional bets.

According to Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director of RiddiSiddhi Bullions and President of IBJA, gold and silver are “dancing to the tunes of Fed rate-cut bets,” with dovish remarks from policymakers strengthening expectations of easing. He expects gold to trade between $4,000 and $4,200 an ounce (₹1.21–1.27 lakh per 10g) and silver between $49 and $53 an ounce (₹1.50–1.60 lakh per kg).

For long-term investors, the current pullback offers an opportunity to accumulate through staggered purchases or structured products such as sovereign gold bonds and digital gold, which allow steady entry without timing the market.

Those considering silver may look at the metal’s industrial upside, particularly as demand strengthens in solar energy, electric vehicles and electronics manufacturing.

What to watch next

Upcoming US retail sales, producer inflation data and jobless claims will heavily influence near-term price direction. A confirmation of a December rate cut could nudge bullion higher, while persistent inflation pressures may keep gains capped.

Until then, analysts advise sticking to conservative allocations and using corrections as entry points, with gold and silver both expected to stay within their existing trading corridors.

-With Reuters inputs