Nifty F&O Setup: FII net longs increase marginally for the first time in three months

The Nifty begins the February F&O series with multiple major events on the anvil. The series also begins after a forgettable series in January, during which the index fell over 700 points.

F&O Series	Returns (Points)
January 2026	-763
December 2025	54
November 2025	-51
October 2025	1,325
September 2025	110

Historically, the February series has been one with big price moves on either side for the Nifty. The last five years have seen three February series' being won by the bears, and two others by the bulls.

February Series Year	Returns (Points)	Returns (%)
2021	1,280	9
2022	-862	-5
2023	-381	-2
2024	630	3
2025	-705	-3

At the start of the February series, rollovers currently stand at 70.7%, lower than the three-month average of 72.3%.

Series	Rollovers
February	70.7%
January	72.3%
December	68.8%
November	76%
October	83%

After two months of decline, net long positions of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have seen a marginal increase at the start of the February series, returning back to double digits.

Month	FII Longs In Futures
February	12%
January	9%
December	15%
November	20%
October	6%

Despite the marginal increase, the net short contracts for the FIIs stood at 1.75 lakh at the start of the series, while Client long exposure of 72.5% comprised of 1.26 lakh net contracts.

The biggest trigger of the February series comes this Sunday when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will table the Union Budget on the floor of the Parliament. In a few days from the Budget presentation, the Reserve Bank of India will come out with its policy decision. The remainder of the earnings season for the third quarter and any potential progress on the India-US trade deal will be important to monitor during the series as well.