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As the major fall festivals draw to a close and the awards race comes into focus, two themes have emerged among a crop of early favorites: what it costs to act and what it costs to forget.
At first, those seem like separate
matters. On one side, we observe a surge in movies that are love letters to the craft of acting — almost pointedly so amid the rise of artificial intelligence. It’s there in “Elsinore,” a portrait of thespian Ian Charleson’s final performance playing one of Shakespeare’s most celebrated roles; in Jesse Eisenberg’s “The Debut,” a whimsical ode to community theater; and in Peter Farrelly’s “I Play Rocky,” the origin story of one of Hollywood’s greatest underdog tales. Each showcases human actors and their dedication to their craft in a moment when machines are attempting to replace a face, voice and life force.
On the other side are stories about dementia, Alzheimer’s disease and loss of memory, which were prominent in the Toronto Film Festival lineup. There was the hand-drawn animation “Tangles,” which broke audiences’ hearts, followed by Cody Fern’s family drama “Closing Night” and Lauren Miller Rogen’s dramedy “Babies” starring Anna Kendrick.
All these films speak to erasure and ask what remains of a person once the thing that made them singular disappears.
“I Play Rocky” is the crowd-pleaser and the one most alert to the irony baked into its premise. Farrelly’s film, which bowed at Toronto, opens Nov. 6 and is timed to the 50th anniversary of “Rocky.” It tells the true story of how a broke but determined Sylvester Stallone wrote one of the most rousing sports films ever and then refused to let anyone else play the titular role.
Lead actor Anthony Ippolito, who landed the part with an unsolicited self-tape, disappears into the garbled diction and hangdog stubbornness of a young Stallone without ever coming off as a mere impression of a person. In keeping with the film’s theme of authenticity, Ippolito found the line between mimicry and craft the way an actor must.
“As long as it’s coming from a truthful place,” he tells Variety.
He spent months studying footage from the period, then worked “to see through or look past” pop culture caricatures of Stallone “and just kind of find it in myself.”
With the emergence of Tilly Norwood — the synthetic “actor” engineered to rattle the unions and the industry — many performers, including Ippolito, are pushing back.
“Actors on some level have to be humanists,” he says.
What drew him to the “Rocky” story, he says, was that Stallone wrote the script in longhand with a Bic pen and a Mead notebook: “I think we need more stories about people doing things themselves and thinking for themselves, especially the younger generation coming up.”
That idea surfaces in other early awards season contenders. “Elsinore,” from director Simon Stone, approaches it from a darker place punctuated by moments of levity. Andrew Scott plays Charleson, the “Chariots of Fire” actor who spent the last year of his life performing “Hamlet” as AIDS took hold.
“The Debut,” starring Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti, makes a similar case with a comic twist. Eisenberg’s movie follows a suburban nobody (Moore) who comes gloriously undone in finding her passion to perform. In both films, acting is the central source of the characters’ motivations.
The loss of memory was explored at Toronto in several films. “Tangles” and “Babies” examine the fragile and personal nature of remembrance and our deepest attachments to it. Once it’s gone, there’s no way to get it back.
“Closing Night,” led by Sarah Paulson (in a career-best turn), Naomi Watts and Dianne Wiest, brings the concepts of performance and memory together. The film centers on an actress (Paulson) and her estranged sister (Watts) who have an unexpected reunion following a devastating diagnosis.
The drama turns on the notion that for an actor, losing one’s memory means losing part of the self that made performance possible.
Time will tell if the decidedly human themes explored in these early awards contenders translate to golden trophies. But each makes a forceful argument that the machines may cut costs but can’t yet replicate the soul.
This week’s updated predictions are below.
See all Academy Awards predictions
Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars
Oscars Predictions Tracking
(Sept. 17, 2026)
Best Picture
“The Debut” (A24)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Fjord” (Neon)
“The Invite” (A24)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Wildwood” (Laika)
“You Can See Everything” (A24)
Director
Lee Chang-dong, “Possible Love” (Netflix)
Martin McDonagh, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Christopher Nolan, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
Olivia Wilde, “The Invite” (A24)
Actor
Tom Cruise, “Digger” (Warner Bros.)
Matt Damon, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
John Malkovich, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Pedro Pascal, “Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
Andrew Scott, “Elsinore” (Focus Features)
Actress
Marion Bailey, “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)
Rosalind Eleazar, “Misty Green” (A24)
Julianne Moore, “The Debut” (A24)
Inde Navarrette, “Obsession” (Focus Features)
Olivia Wilde, “The Invite” (A24)
Supporting Actor
Steve Buscemi, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Paul Giamatti, “The Debut” (A24)
John Leguizamo, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Guy Pearce, “Ink” (Netflix)
Sam Rockwell, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz, “The Invite” (A24)
Anne Hathaway, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Samantha Morton, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Kate O’Flynn, “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)
Olivia Wilde, “Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
Original Screenplay
“Club Kid” (A24) — Jordan Firstman
“The Debut” (A24) — Jesse Eisenberg
“Fjord” (Neon) — Cristian Mungiu
“Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street) — Mike Leigh
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures) — Martin McDonagh
Adapted Screenplay
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) — Brian K. Vaughan, Denis Villeneuve
“The Invite” (A24) — Rashida Jones and Will McCormack
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix) — Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo, Alberto Conejero
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) — Christopher Nolan
“Wildwood” (Laika) — Chris Butler
Casting
“Being Heumann” (Apple Original Films)
“Club Kid” (A24)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Animated Feature
“Forgotten Island” (DreamWorks Animation)
“Ray Gunn” (Netflix)
“Tangles” (Independent Film Company)
“Toy Story 5″ (Pixar)
“Wildwood” (Laika)
Production Design
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth” (Netflix)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Cinematography
“Digger” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Costume Design
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Sense and Sensibility” (Focus Features)
Film Editing
“The Debut” (A24)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“The Invite” (A24)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Digger” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Werwulf” (Focus Features)
Sound
“Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Visual Effects
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Godzilla Minus Zero” (GKids)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Spider-Man: Brand New Day” (Sony Pictures)
“Wildwood” (Laika)
Original Score
“Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Wildwood” (Laika)
Original Song
TBA song from “Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
“By Any Means” from “By Any Means” (Paramount Pictures)
“This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from “The Debut” (A24)
“Let Me Sell You a Dream” from “Musk” (Bleecker Street)
“I Knew It, I Knew You” from “Toy Story 5” (Pixar)
Documentary Feature
“American Doctor” (Watermelon Pictures)
“Everest: The Other Side” (National Geographic)
“14th” (Netflix)
“Musk” (Bleecker Street)
“Once Upon a Time in Harlem” (Neon)
International Feature
“Every time” from Germany (1-2 Special)
“Fjord” from Romania (Neon)
“La Bola Negra” from Spain (Netflix)
“Minotaur” from France (Mubi)
“Possible Love” from South Korea (Netflix)
See all Academy Awards predictions
Variety Awards Circuit: Emmys
