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“Moana” might be heading for choppy waters at the box office.
Some tracking services are estimating that Disney’s live-action version of the animated musical will debut to $60 million to $65 million from 3,875 North
American theaters. Those ticket sales are just barely above the original 2016 adventure, which opened to $56 million, not adjusted for inflation. However, others are predicting an even softer start of $35 million to $40 million, which would be catastrophic given that “Moana” carries a massive $250 million production budget — and that’s before the studio’s hefty global marketing spend is taken into account.
Overseas audiences could be key in the box office success of “Moana,” which is projected to earn $70 million to $75 million in its debut at the international box office.
Domestically, though, “Moana” is tracking as one of the lower openings in terms of Disney’s live-action remakes. It could join the company of 2019’s “Dumbo” ($45 million) and 2025’s “Snow White” ($42 million), both of which became box office losers against hefty production budgets. By comparison, the studio’s adaptations of “Lilo & Stitch,” “The Lion King” and “Beauty and the Beast” each debuted above $100 million.
“Moana” is sailing to theaters a decade after the original oceanic-set musical and a short two years after the sequel, which became a billion-dollar smash. The first film ended its theatrical run with $680 million. Then, with supremely catchy songs like “How Far I’ll Go” and “You’re Welcome,” “Moana” exploded in popularity on Disney+ and remains one of the most-watched streaming titles of all time. A follow-up was originally developed as a television series before Disney opted to retool the project into a feature film. That decision proved wise: The sequel premiered around Thanksgiving with a staggering $225 million over five days (and $139 million over the traditional weekend) before powering to $1.059 billion worldwide.
Over the last decade, Disney’s various live-action remakes have delivered mixed results. Last year’s “Lilo & Stitch” crossed $1 billion, a milestone that was especially lucrative for the studio since the film cost a relatively modest $100 million. Other billion-dollar earners include 2019’s “Aladdin,” 2017’s “Beauty and the Beast” and 2019’s “The Lion King,” while 2016’s “The Jungle Book” was pretty close with $967 million. Disney’s sweet spot seems to be revisiting movies from the ’90s and early 2000s. The studio has misfired when reaching too far back in the vault, à la “Dumbo” (1941) and “Snow White” (1937). A remake of 2010’s “Tangled” is in the works with Kathryn Hahn as the villainous Mother Gothel.
Directed by Thomas Kail (“Hamilton”), “Moana” revolves around the strong-willed daughter of a village chief, who is chosen by the ocean to restore prosperity to her island. Newcomer Catherine Laga’aia stars as Moana while Dwayne Johnson reprises his role from the animated series as the tattooed demigod Maul, who helps the Polynesian heroine on her journey.
This weekend also sees the release of “Evil Dead Burn,” which is aiming for $15 million to $20 million from 4,000 theaters. The supernatural horror film is the sixth entry in Warner Bros. and New Line’s “Evil Dead” franchise, which began with Sam Raimi’s low-budget 1981 thriller “The Evil Dead” and most recently returned to the big screen with 2023’s “Evil Dead Rise.” That film opened to $24 million and ended its run with $147 million globally. A seventh installment, “Evil Dead Wrath,” is already set for 2028.
Elsewhere, A24’s comedy “The Invite” is looking to collect $4 million to $5 million while expanding nationwide. The well-reviewed film, directed by Olivia Wilde, has grossed $1.36 million after two weekends in limited release. “The Invite” centers around a bickering married couple (Wilde and Seth Rogen) who host a dinner party for their free-spirited upstairs neighbors (Penélope Cruz and Edward Norton).
Holdover titles will round out box office charts, with last weekend’s champ, Universal’s “Minions & Monsters,” expected to add $17 million to $22 million in its sophomore outing and Disney’s “Toy Story 5” aiming for $18 million to $20 million in its fourth weekend of release.
Meanwhile, movie theater owners are patiently waiting for two behemoths, Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” (July 17) and “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” (July 31), to close out the month with a bang.
