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Netflix is hunting for gold.
The streaming giant has built Hollywood’s most expensive awards machine. The serial billboards on the Sunset Strip, the designer screening rooms and the elite tastemaker dinners have earned
Netflix a decade of best picture nominations. What it doesn’t have is the big trophy. Is this the year that finally changes?
In Toronto, the streamer won the People’s Choice Award for “La Bola Negra,” the 160-minute Spanish-language epic from Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi (aka Los Javis). It’s the first Netflix film to win TIFF’s audience prize and the first non-English-language winner in 15 years.
Of the past 16 People’s Choice winners, 14 earned best picture nominations and four won: “The King’s Speech,” “12 Years a Slave,” “Green Book” and “Nomadland.” The question is no longer whether Netflix has a contender; it’s whether the company has learned how to close the deal. Its near 10-year history of best picture also-rans has shown it can do almost everything right except win.
“Roma” earned 10 nominations in 2018, with Alfonso Cuarón winning director and cinematography and the film taking international feature for Mexico. It lost best picture to “Green Book.”
“The Power of the Dog” led the field with 12 nominations in 2021, and Jane Campion won director. But Apple’s “CODA” became the streaming era’s first best picture winner; coincidentally, director Siân Heder helmed this year’s People’s Choice runner-up, “Being Heumann.”
Edward Berger’s German-language “All Quiet on the Western Front” earned a record seven BAFTAs and four Oscars in 2022, only to lose best picture to “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
When Netflix goes international, the Academy shows genuine enthusiasm, but tends to compartmentalize it. The international feature trophy is the consolation prize, and only South Korea’s “Parasite” has ever broken through to a best picture win.
Then there’s the contender Netflix wants to forget.
“Emilia Pérez” headed into the 97th Oscars with 13 noms, the most ever for a non-English-language film. Then star Karla Sofía Gascón’s offensive social media posts resurfaced, decimating the campaign and Netflix spent the final weeks scrubbing its lead actress from For Your Consideration ads.
“La Bola Negra” has the chance to rewrite Netflix’s Oscar history.
This is a Spanish story, told in Spanish, made by Spanish filmmakers about their own community. Drawing from Federico García Lorca’s unfinished play and Alberto Conejero’s play “La piedra oscura,” it follows three queer men at three points in history. Ambrossi has said the directors set out to make “the gayest war movie ever.”
Los Javis shared Cannes’ director prize with “Fatherland” helmer Paweł Pawlikowski. Pedro Almodóvar’s El Deseo co-produced the epic, whose cast includes Penélope Cruz, Glenn Close and breakout Guitarricadelafuente. The film also has been selected as Spain’s submission in the international feature category.
Most tellingly, Netflix is treating the movie differently than it has previous Oscar hopefuls. It opens in theaters Oct. 16 and doesn’t hit the service until Dec. 2; the 47-day exclusive window is the longest in company history. For years, Netflix resisted committing to cinemas and this looks like the company conceding the point.
But none of this makes it a lock.
Subtitles and a 160-minute run time are a hurdle for voters watching screeners at home over the holidays. “Oppenheimer” proved voters would sit through three hours, but it also had the box office, the zeitgeist and the narrative that Christopher Nolan was overdue.
Some critics have said the film’s ambition outpaces its execution; others have called it uneven. Remember: consensus films win best picture.
It’s also worth considering that the Academy could embrace “La Bola Negra” across all other categories but award it international feature as a consolation, just as it did with “Roma” and “All Quiet.”
It all depends on whether Netflix can sustain the campaign through January without peaking in September. The streamer has spent eight years chasing the statuette. Can it finally seal the deal en español?
This week’s updated predictions are below.
See all Academy Awards predictions
Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars
Oscars Predictions Tracking
(Oct. 1, 2026)
Best Picture
“The Debut” (A24)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Invite” (A24)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Wildwood” (Laika)
“You Can See Everything” (A24)
Director
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, “La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Martin McDonagh, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Christopher Nolan, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
Olivia Wilde, “The Invite” (A24)
Actor
Matt Damon, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
John Malkovich, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Pedro Pascal, “Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
Andrew Scott, “Elsinore” (Focus Features)
John Turturro, “The Only Living Pickpocket in New York” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Actress
Marion Bailey, “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)
Sandra Hüller, “Fatherland” (Mubi)
Julianne Moore, “The Debut” (A24)
Inde Navarrette, “Obsession” (Focus Features)
Olivia Wilde, “The Invite” (A24)
Supporting Actor
Andrew Garfield, “Artificial” (Neon)
Paul Giamatti, “The Debut” (A24)
John Leguizamo, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Robert Pattinson, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Sam Rockwell, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz, “The Invite” (A24)
Penélope Cruz, “La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Anne Hathaway, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Samantha Morton, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Kate O’Flynn, “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)
Original Screenplay
“The Debut” (A24) — Jesse Eisenberg
“Fjord” (Neon) — Cristian Mungiu
“I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Peter Gamble
“Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street) — Mike Leigh
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures) — Martin McDonagh
Adapted Screenplay
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) — Brian K. Vaughan, Denis Villeneuve
“The Invite” (A24) — Rashida Jones and Will McCormack
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix) — Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo, Alberto Conejero
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) — Christopher Nolan
“Wildwood” (Laika) — Chris Butler
Casting
“Being Heumann” (Apple Original Films)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Elsinore” (Focus Features)
“I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Animated Feature
“Forgotten Island” (DreamWorks Animation)
“Ray Gunn” (Netflix)
“Tangles” (Independent Film Company)
“Toy Story 5” (Pixar)
“Wildwood” (Laika)
Production Design
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth” (Netflix)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Cinematography
“Digger” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Costume Design
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Sense and Sensibility” (Focus Features)
Film Editing
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“The Invite” (A24)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Digger” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Werwulf” (Focus Features)
Sound
“Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Visual Effects
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Godzilla Minus Zero” (GKids)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Spider-Man: Brand New Day” (Sony Pictures)
“Wildwood” (Laika)
Original Score
“Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Wildwood” (Laika)
Original Song
“Your God is Sleeping” from “Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
“By Any Means” from “By Any Means” (Paramount Pictures)
“This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from “The Debut” (A24)
“Let Me Sell You a Dream” from “Musk” (Bleecker Street)
“I Knew It, I Knew You” from “Toy Story 5” (Pixar)
Documentary Feature
“American Doctor” (Watermelon Pictures)
“Everest: The Other Side” (National Geographic)
“14th” (Netflix)
“Musk” (Bleecker Street)
“Once Upon a Time in Harlem” (Neon)
International Feature
“Fjord” from Romania (Neon)
“La Bola Negra” from Spain (Netflix)
“Minotaur” from France (Mubi)
“Possible Love” from South Korea (Netflix)
“Woman Unknown” from Denmark (U.S. Distributor TBD)
See all Academy Awards predictions
Variety Awards Circuit: Emmys
