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It’s Election Day for the pivotal 2026 midterms that will determine control of U.S. Congress — and a bunch of people are trying to make money by betting on the outcome.
As of Monday (Nov. 2) at 8 p.m. ET, nearly $1.9
billion had been wagered on the midterm elections on the two biggest prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, according to an analysis by the Washington Post. About $1.3 billion has been traded on Kalshi compared with about $600 million for Polymarket.
The odds on both sites show Democrats have the edge: Democrats have a 78% chance of winning the Senate and 95% chance of flipping the House, per Polymarket. Kalshi also pegs Dems’ Senate chances at 78% but puts the party’s House odds slightly lower, at 93.9%.
Prediction market platforms allow traders to buy and sell “yes” or “no” contracts on a range of race outcomes and scenarios. Kalshi, whose tagline is “Trade on anything,” says it bans insider trading, which is defines as “when a person trades on the platform while in possession of certain information or influence over the outcome of a contract that materially affects their decision to trade.” Polymarket also bans insider trading; the company recently said it has investigated dozens of trades related to the midterm elections for insider trading and “manipulation,” per NPR.
For context, more money is being spent by political candidates on advertising: About $3.9 billion will be spent on ads across House and Senate races, according to a New York Times analysis of data from media-tracking firm AdImpact.
Meanwhile, the total bet on Kalshi and Polymarket to date is far lower than the amount wagered on the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when more than $3.6 billion was wagered on Polymarket alone on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris would win the presidency, per the Post.
In the weeks ahead of the 2024 presidential race, the prediction markets indicated that Donald Trump would win the election over Kamala Harris, running counter to many polls — some of which suggested Harris had a double-digit lead over Trump.
