Click here to read the full article.
It wasn’t just a sea breeze and late summer sun which brought a sense of new airs and targeted optimism blowing through the San Sebastian’s 2026 Creative Investors’ Conference.
For four years, CIC, co-organized with
CAA Media Finance, has insisted on upsides and opportunities in drastic post-COVID and post-peak TV downturn.
2026 presented one clear example, in record summer U.S. box office — so panelists talking up dramatic U.S theatrical rebound. Other interviewees spoke large about new sources of energy galvanizing — and complicating — the sector: the build of select national industries around the world, and an ever growing involvement of equity investment in financing.
That said, the market at large in TV sell belabors at 75% of peak TV levels, as Ampere Analysis points out. Huge problems in key markets, moreover, remain. One case in point: In Christine Vachon’s lapidary phrase, U.S. independent production is “basically fucked up.”
The Rebound
“I think it’s a recovery; it’s a phenomenal result,” said Neon head of distribution Elissa Federoff at a key first day CIC panel, The New U.S. Landscape. “Every year since the pandemic, we have seen growth, and it’s been amazing to watch. “COVID happened, strikes happened, theater closures happened, and in that time, there has been a rise of a lot of other channels of entertainment, gaming, social platforms, streaming platforms. We’ve seen opportunities for new pathways during this point,” added Federoff, a major cheerleader for optimism at the Conference.
Social Media: Friend No Foe
Those pathways run through the very phenomenon, the explosion of social media, which was once seen as detracting from cinema audiences. “People are coming back to the movie theaters but engaging with movies in different ways,” said Sumerian’s Pictures’ Rob Williams. Cinemagoers now mostly find their movies on social media, Federoff notes. It is creating fandom, new audiences, with most cinemagoers now “younger, Millennial, Gen Z and even younger,” she noted.
Reaching Out to the New Gen Crowd
Launched in June 2025, and moving waves with its pick up of “Josephine” at Sundance, Sumerian Pictures often targets an audience that parent company Sumerian Records has been able to build on the music side, which is a younger audience that obviously cares about music,” noted Williams. Playing to social media, distributors are looking for movies to create conversations around,” noted Adele Romanski at producer Pastel Pictures. This context does much to explain the excitement around films like queer epic “La Bola Negra,” winner of the often Oscar predictive TIFF People’s Choice Award, which has a pop sensibility, mainstream reach and embraces the LGBTQ cause.
‘Obsession,’ ‘Backrooms’ Drive the Conference, Festival Conversation
So much of the conversation at the Conference, even on the panel Europe’s Current Challenges and Opportunities, turned on U.S. box office sensations “Obsession,” based on a YouTube short, and “Backrooms,” which began life as a viral YouTube web series. “‘Obsession’ and ‘Backrooms’ are two movies that completely changed the way Hollywood is talking about films,” said the L.A.-based Lorenzo de Maio on the panel. “Distributors need to bring the movie to the audience, and Curry [Barker] and Kane [Parsons] brought their own audiences. That same phenomenon is also felt in Europe. “There is an audience that loves movies, a younger audience, too, and that is open to different authentic voices in a way five or 10 years ago we wouldn’t have been that confident about,” noted StudioCanal’s Ron Halpern. “That’s a great thing for all of our local or mixed-language productions.” On the Andrew Garfield-Florence Pugh two-hander “We Live in Time,” for example, Halpern’s team knew Pugh would “deliver the TikTok audience,” and she did.
International Films Oscar Domination?
“We are [now] seeing at least three-four international films in the best film category,” said Rodrigo Teixeira, behind “I’m Still Here.” “And in five years from now, I believe international films will make up 60% of the category for best film, because we can talk more. We have freedom of speech, and in the U.S., without freedom of speech, it’s difficult to get financed.” Certainly, Teixeira, who broke out producing U.S. independents — “Francis Ha,” “The Witch” — is now, beyond movies from James Gary, such as “Paper Tiger,” is now shooting films all over the world: in 2025 two in Brazil and Romania, and one in the U.S., Chile, Argentina and Lebanon.
International Still Hurts
Another factor driving international: co-Production. “There are so many opportunities to co-pro within Europe and so many ways of doing it. The complexity is there, but it’s worth navigating it because it’s a thriving industry,” said De Maio. And yet, international is hurting in multiple key markets and a myriad of ways. In Brazil, “I’m Still Here” and “The Secret Agent” made “exceptional” box office, “The Blue Trail” had “very good solid results,” said Teixeira. “But a lot of other Brazilian films make 10,000 admissions in theaters. And that kills the film.” In South Korea, “companies are increasingly looking internationally,” noted Heejeon Kim at Barunson C&C. That is “out of necessity,” she added at the Producing and Financing Across Borders panel. “The number of films and the revenues, everything’s shrinking, financiers are really struggling to invest money,” she added.
Equity Builds as Key Financing, and Not Just in the U.S.
Another challenge and strength in international: “What we’ve seen in the last decade in many, many countries is that local films’ market share has grown: People want to see local films. Indonesia’s cinema market share is now 60%. 10 years ago, it was probably 10%, 12% or 15%. That’s a major challenge for us,” Goodfellas’ Vincent Maraval said in a key Conference observation. So sales agents and producers are turning to equity to make up a shortfall not only in pre-sales but streamer pull-back and falling broadcaster pre-buy moneys. Having U.S. equity come into the European market is “a new thing” for Why Not Productions, said Pauline Lamy. “Because we can not pre-sell a lot of films because of their language, having that type of money is really helping us make films at a bigger scale. ‘Fjord’ needed that; ‘Emilia Pérez’ needed that. A lot of films couldn’t work without this mixed system.”
Spain SETTs New State Aid Agenda
It’s not just films’ private sector which is getting into the act, however. The CIC kicked off, fittingly enough, with the presentation of SETT, a go-getting Spanish sovereign venture capital fund, and part of Spain’s Ministry of Digital Transformation. Financed by E.U. Next Generation funds, and an innovation in state aid mindset for Spain, SETT does not give subsidies nor project financing but rather invests up to 49% of the equity of companies requiring 51% private sector participation, said SETT audiovisual director María Coronado. SETT has plowed €216 million in 15 operations, across the whole audiovisual value chain, generating a total investment of €445 million, she added. At the Conference, execs from three beneficiaries — Casa Mundo Cero, Aurora Media and Itaca Films — talked up the benefits.
Pijama: Pablo and Juan de Dios Larraín’s Groundbreaking New TVOD Platform
“80%, 85% of movies that go to major film festivals in the world do not get distribution, and there’s no way to see them,” Pablo Larrain said at the Conference. And even if films do score distribution, rights can quickly lapse. Incredible but true: By Cannes 2026, Justine Triet’s 2023 Cannes Palme d’Or winner “Anatomy of a Fall” could not be seen in parts of Africa and Australasia. Enter Pijama, talked up by the Larrain brothers at CIC, a TVOD system affording global or select territory access and right holder returns, which get 80% of revenues, to great films audiences can’t see. Uploading costs $100 for two years. So far Pijama has cut deals with MK2, Alpha Violet and Visit Films, among sales agents. In Pijama’s Top 10 Emir Kusturica’s “Black Cat, White Cat” ranks at No. 4, Juliette Binoche’s “In-I In Motion” No 5. Any producer can upload a film.
AI: Tool and Taboo
A Thinking Towards the Future closed the 2026 Creative Investors’ Conference. Inevitably, it talked a lot about AI.
“I think there’s paranoia, like the old saying there’s nothing to fear but fear itself. AI is a tool. AI is not something that is coming in and making movies,” said Ryan Kavanaugh at Acme AI & FX, one of its best known practitioners. “AI makes the below-the-line cost of movie drop by two thirds,” reduced a shoot schedule on one movie, shot entirely on a gray stage, from 70 to 19 days, allowed it to use exotic locations. “One of the beautiful parts of AI is you can literally make part or all of a movie in a manner not fit for theatrical release, but enough so a studio can watch it and they can make a decision on green light, Kavanagh added. “When you do a movie, you have a limited budget, whatever the budget is,” said Patrick Wachsberger, at 193. “Can you make this movie bigger in scope using AI? I’m not suggesting at all that you use AI for any of the actors, but if you want to do extension or whatever, something to give scope to the movie, I’m all for it.”
