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“Godzilla Minus Zero” should stomp to the top of box office charts, with the Kaiju sequel on track to earn a strong $30 million from 3,254 North American theaters in its opening weekend.
The action adventure will tower
over fellow newcomers including Warner Bros. Animation’s “The Cat in the Hat” and Searchlight’s dark buddy comedy “Wild Horse Nine,” starring John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell and directed by Martin McDonagh. “The Cat in the Hat” is aiming for second place with $20 million to $25 million from 4,000 domestic venues. “Wild Horse Nine” is targeting $5 million to $7 million from just 1,000 screens.
“Godzilla Minus Zero” will build on the excitement from 2023’s “Godzilla Minus One,” a sci-fi epic that surprised in the U.S. with $11.4 million domestically to start. With great reviews and a lack of competition (it debuted during Hollywood’s actors and writers strike), “Godzilla Minus One” powered to $57 million to stand as the highest-grossing live-action Japanese film in North America. Globally, the film earned $113 million and won a visual effects Oscar.
Produced by Japan’s Toho and distributed in the U.S. by GKids, “Godzilla Minus Zero” should overindex on premium large formats; it’s the first Japanese production ever filmed for Imax. Directed by Takashi Yamazaki, the movie takes place two years after the prior installment as Godzilla regenerates and resurfaces to combat a new monster that’s tormenting postwar Japan. Reviews have been overwhelmingly positive, with Variety’s chief film critic Owen Gleiberman calling the sequel an “even grander follow-up to ‘Godzilla Minus One.'”
“Cat in the Hat” is tracking a much lower opening than prior animated Dr. Seuss adaptations. By comparison, 2018’s “The Grinch” opened to $67 million, and 2012’s “The Lorax” opened to $70 million, neither adjusted for inflation. Sure, the theatrical landscape has changed dramatically since those films were released. However this spring’s “Hoppers,” an original offering from Pixar, managed to debut to $45 million. Recently, though, animated movies based on popular IP have enjoyed long theatrical lives, and the studio is hoping “Cat in the Hat” performs similarly to Sony’s 2024 adventure “Garfield,” which bowed to $23 million and powered to $91 million domestically and $257 million globally.
“Cat in the Hat” will rely on word-of-mouth, as well as overseas audiences, to achieve the staying power necessary to justify its $92 million production budget. (Theater owners keep roughly 50% of ticket sales.) The movie could benefit because there hasn’t been an animated offering for families with young kids since September’s “Forgotten Island.” And “Cat in the Hat” won’t have direct competition until Disney’s original “Hexed” launches on Nov. 25.
This is the second adaptation of the Seuss classic following 2003’s live-action comedy, starring Mike Myers as the Cat. That film opened to $38 million, not adjusted for inflation, and ran out of steam with $134 million, a disappointing result given the budget was above $100 million. Bill Hader voices the titular character in the cartooned version, which was directed by Alessandro Carloni and Erica Rivinoja and revolves around the shenanigans that occur after a mischievous cat (wearing a hat) arrives to cheer up two siblings who move to a new town.
“Wild Horse Nine” is catering to older audiences, a demographic that’s been hit or miss in recent years. Searchlight is opting to launch the movie in roughly 1,000 theaters, a larger initial footprint compared to McDonagh’s prior film, 2022’s “The Banshees of Inisherin.” After a start in limited release, “Banshees of Inisherin” became a slow and steady box office winner with $10.5 million domestically and $50 million globally. “Wild Horse Nine,” which similarly hopes to find itself in the Oscar race, follows two CIA officers (Malkovich and Rockwell) who are dispatched from Santiago to Easter Island shortly before a Chilean military coup.
This weekend’s other newcomer is the Indian epic “Ramayana: Rise of a Legend,” which is projected to earn $6 million during its first four days in theaters. Those ticket sales are comparable to recent Telugu language fantasy films like “Kalki 2898 AD” ($5.6 million), “Devara Part 1” ($5.6 million) and “Pushpa: The Rule – Part 2” ($5 million) — all of which were released in 2024 and legged out to various degrees. Sony is distributing “Ramayana: Rise of a Legend” in 1,300 theaters, marking the widest North American release for an Indian film.
