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There are two points of view you could take on Taylor Swift and her Grammys history: (a) Swift has been a Grammys hoarder. (b) Swift has gotten robbed by the Recording Academy… regularly. Which of these contradictory
statements is true?
How about both of them? They’re not actually as oxymoronic as they appear; it just depends which categories you’re considering. On the one hand, Swift is the all-time top honoree when it comes to Album of the Year, having picked it up four times (for “Fearless,” “1989,” “Folklore” and “Midnights,” spread out over a period of 14 years). She got so much attention for that record-shattering four-peat that there may be a popular perception that she’s already won enough Grammys for one person’s lifetime. In all, she’s picked up 14.
But here’s what very few people realize, or remember: She has never won Record of the Year or Song of the Year. That’s not a misprint. The biggest pop music star of the 21st century, and the one with the most No. 1 Hot 100 hits this century — 15 — has never been rewarded in either of the two all-genre Grammy categories that honor singles. Whether you love her, can’t stand her or fall somewhere in-between, that oversight for someone who is quantifiably the modern era’s most reliable crafter of indelible songs is kind of flabbergasting to consider.
Now, if things had to be that lopsided, and Swift had to pick just one of the Grammys’ top three categories in which to be such a dominative force, she’d probably say she was happy where she landed. She’s long talked about how happy she is to have helped keep the album format alive, as an artform and a commercial force, in the age of quick-hit streaming. But we can also guess that she’s competitive enough that the shutouts for record and song have to nag at her. They’re certainly seen as sins of omission in the world of Swifties who pay lasting and unforgiving attention to perceived snubs.
Is this the year for Swift to finally make up for lost time in either Record or Song, or both? It’s fair to say she is coming into the nominating process well-armed. Of those aforementioned 15 No. 1 hits, three of them came within the eligibility period for the 2027 Grammys, which just ended — and no other artist can similarly lay a claim to three recent charttoppers. It seems like quite an advantage, having taken “The Life of Ophelia,” “Opalite” and “I Knew It, I Knew You” to the summit, all in short order,
Except, of course, for the part where she has to pick just one.
That’s not literally accurate; Swift or her team would be free to submit multiple entries in the same category, to put on the general ballot that will go out to Recording Academy voters on Oct. 12. But obviously she won’t, as fortune favors jockeys who don’t attempt to race astride two (or more) horses at once. So there’s a slight bit of suspense as to which of the three smashes Swift and team will place their bets on.
Here at Variety, we are fairly certain we’ve figured out what the plan of attack will be. So jump ahead to the end if you can’t stand waiting. But if you want to know what the arguments are, here are some of the pluses and minuses Camp Swift will definitely have considered in deciding what to formally submit for election.
“Opalite.” This is the one we can fairly safely rule out as something Swift might pick for a single submission in a top Grammy category. We render that judgment with a bit of sorrow, because Variety’s critic is on record as having chosen “Opalite” as the most ineluctably catchy and fun song of all the material on her “The Life of a Showgirl” album. If that opinion was widely shared — and we do have company in that! — this would seemingly make it a natural pick for a Record of the Year slot (if less so Song, which is more about the writing than the vibe). Yet even though it made it No. 1, an honor afforded very few songs in a calendar year, it wasn’t a multi-week No. 1. It’s just starting the race too far behind the other two tunes in terms of perceived impact.
Why wasn’t “Opalite” a longer-lasting No. 1, when it was such a fan favorite from the moment “Showgirl” came out last October? Partly because it was a victim of the success of “Ophelia” and that song’s massive tail. Before it ever officially became a single, the streaming for “Opalite” was spread out over months and months. As an album track, it debuted at No. 2 on the Hot 100 the week “Showgirl” came out, and it remained in the top 10, on and off for 14 weeks prior to ever getting a music video or getting a radio push. But “Ophelia” was so huge, it soon became apparent that it had a shot at breaking Swift’s personal record for the most weeks one of her singles spent at No. 1, which surely was one reason why it kept getting pushed and “Opalite” kept getting pushed back. Eventually “Ophelia” hit the 10-week mark, a rare feat. When it was finally time to move on after that, “Opalite” had already been consumed in such mass quantities that it couldn’t stay on top for long. But in an alternate universe, the two “O” songs might have switched places and “Opalite” would have benefited from the more advantageous slot.
“The Fate of Ophelia.” The song’s 10 weeks at No. 1 set a personal high mark for Swift, as noted above. Would anyone have picked a song named after a drowned Shakespeare character to be Swift’s longest running topper and, by some commercial standards, the biggest song of her career? She would have, and that’s the only pre-release forecasting that counts. It broke both the single-day and single-week streaming records on Spotify. But its fate was really tied to viewing as much as pure listening, thanks to a Swift-directed music video that had the star and backup dancers romping through a variety of soundstage settings, imagining her as everything from a silent-movie damsel in distress to a ’60s go-go girl.
The real fate of “The Fate of Ophelia” wasn’t really measured in numbers, though. It was in TikTok clips and Instagram Stories and Facebook reels, etc., as the dance moves seen in the music video got memorized and charmingly copied by millions of users. Mostly by kids, yes, but some of the more novel adoptees really went viral. Moms and grandmas doing the “Ophelia” steps? Dog trainers making up modified choreography to get their German shepherds into the action? The craze had a sweetness to it. All these reenactors clearly weren’t being force-fed a hit. They were taking it to their hearts because it made them want to step lively. And anybody in the Recording Academy who either watched all those homemade clips or had a kid who did may feel that affection bubbling up again when they see “Ophelia” on their ballot.
If they see “Ophelia” on their ballot, that is. Because we haven’t forgotten the third contender from her recent catalog, one that would seem to have equally as good a case as this to be put in front of Academy voters next month…
“I Knew It, I Knew You.” It’s easy to tick off the reasons why Swift might choose her theme song for “Toy Story 5” over either of the songs from “The Life of a Showgirl”:
Recency bias. Of course it’s fresher in people’s minds than “The Fate of Ophelia,” which came out early in the eligibility period last October, and will be just over a year old when voters receive their ballots in six weeks. The Disney/Pixar tune only came out in June, a full eight months later, which has to count as an advantage, even if all release dates ought to be equal. (To quote “The Fantasticks”: Try to remember / The kind of October / When that ancient autumn smash came out…)
The blockbuster movie factor. A star as big as Swift can’t exactly be seen as riding another franchise’s coattails; when this single was released, the blowout unveiling created such a stir, you almost could have thought “TS5” was looking to ride hers, as much as anything. But we do have to consider that there will be Grammy voters, mostly older, who managed never to hear “Ophelia,” through Swift indifference or a general seclusion from contemporary hits, who will have been exposed to “I Knew It…” because they do not wall themselves off from the biggest or most critically appreciated movies of the year. And unless they fled for the exits at the first sign of a credit, they got a swift dose of the star at her winsomest.
The gentle factor and the country factor. Again, older voters who find a lot of contemporary pop assaultive may have a sweet spot for a Swift song that is this easy on the ears. And her return to a country-pop sound, after so many years in a different lane, may sit well with the Nashville contingent, since she made such a concerted effort to court country radio and make it sound as if, in her heart, she’d never left. Of course, she’ll have to deal with country-inclined voters being tempted to peel off for Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas,” so there’s that. But after years and years of country being ignored by the Grammys in the top three categories (which Variety published a commentary about last year), it will be interesting if Swift and Langley together should offer the Academy an irresistible chance to put two country tunes among the finalists for top honors.
Surprising longevity. “I Knew It…” hasn’t quite rivaled “Ophelia” on every numbers scale — but for just about anyone else, this might be the song of their career. The fact that “Toy Story 5” has slipped down the box-office charts a little after making a gazillion dollars has not resulted in much slippage for Swift’s song. It currently stands at No. 3 on the Hot 100, and seems pretty locked into that slot, after 12 weeks of release. Songs attached to animated films usually have a limited shelf life, but this one is showing the very rare longevity of a “We Don’t Care About Bruno” or “A Whole New World,” with a twangy twist. When home video hits, the renewal it could enjoy is anyone’s guess.
She wants a damn Oscar. Well, we’re presuming… but doesn’t everybody? Perhaps the biggest factor for “I Knew It…” possibly being Swift’s pick for a Grammy campaign is that she can double it up with an Academy Awards campaign.
The idea that “I Knew It…” might be her preference to put in front of Grammy voters certainly got a big boost when she recently appeared in front of members of the Academy’s songwriters’ wing for an exclusive, invite-only Grammy Museum appearance. In the Q&A she did with Academy CEO Harvey Mason Jr., she didn’t really play any cards as far as discussing any of the eligible songs. But when she took to the piano for a climactic performance that was later released to the public on video, Swift did an Eras Tour-style mashup of three songs she felt were related, in terms of dealing with memory. “I Knew It, I Knew You” was one of those three songs. It felt like a choice.
So which will it be?
The verdict: A split decision. Of course, artists have the option of submitting different songs for Record and Song of the Year, although in most cases they’ll go with the same tune for both. But everything we sense about which direction Swift will go leads us to believe that she will lay different bets on both numbers, when both have so much going for them (and in the case of “I Knew It…,” still so much at stake with other awards shows).
For Record of the Year, we prophecize that she will go with “The Fate of Ophelia.” It’s a category where bops often stand a better chance than ballads. And for Song of the Year, she can favor “I Knew It, I Knew You,” where it’s a little easier to pick out her songwriting chops from the production choices, and which has some very notable nostalgic lyricism sprinkled in among the kind of lyrics that a tyke can still reasonably grasp. There’s no real reason to think that her chances in either category would be diminished by not favoring the same song in both.
Have we pegged this correctly? Check back Oct. 12, when the not-entirely-secret preliminary ballot goes out to voting Academy members, and we’ll know for sure whether she employed a split strategy and we really are knew-it-alls.
[This is the first in a series of columns looking at the prospects for the 2027 Grammy Awards.]
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