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Media Partners Asia projects that leading microdrama platform ReelShort will generate $1.05 billion in revenue in 2026, up 34%, and post its first meaningful profit at scale, according to a new report from the Singapore-based
research firm.
The report, titled “ReelShort / Crazy Maple Studio: Inside the US$1B Micro-Drama Machine,” covers ReelShort’s financial trajectory through 2028 alongside the broader competitive landscape for microdrama outside of China, a category MPA sizes at $3.6 billion this year.
ReelShort’s revenue climbed from $97 million in 2023 to $400 million in 2024 and $785 million in 2025. After an estimated $12 million net loss last year, MPA projects $63 million of EBITDA and some $40 million of net profit in 2026. The firm expects those figures to keep climbing, with EBITDA reaching $306 million – an 18% margin – and net profit hitting $225 million by 2028, on revenue of $1.4 billion in 2027 and $1.7 billion in 2028.
MPA forecasts outside-China microdrama revenue overall will grow from $2.7 billion in 2025 to $3.6 billion this year and $9.5 billion by 2031, a 21% compound annual growth rate. The U.S. market alone is expected to more than double, from $1.5 billion to $3.7 billion, over that period, while Asia Pacific ex-China is projected to triple to $2.4 billion.
A key driver of ReelShort’s improving margins is falling marketing spend. MPA expects user acquisition and marketing costs to shrink as a share of revenue over the forecast period, falling from just over half in 2025 to under 45% by 2028, with each point of decline worth roughly $10.5 million of EBITDA. The firm attributes the trend to five factors: hit franchises and their sequels drawing audiences without paid support and supplying advertising creative; telco and local market partnerships adding subscribers cheaply; more billing shifting to ReelShort’s own web store; improving creative testing and hit rates; and a maturing paid-social ad auction after years of new entrants driving up prices.
Consumer payments and subscriptions remain the core of the business, contributing 85% to 90% of revenue across the forecast period, with subscriptions already making up 60% to 70% of viewer spend. Advertising, a minor revenue stream before 2024, is expected to grow to around 15% of revenue by 2028. Because advertising carries no app-store commission, MPA estimates 65 to 70 cents of every ad dollar flows through to earnings. Combined with the shift toward direct billing on ReelShort’s web store, these two trends account for close to half of the company’s projected margin expansion. ReelShort has also been expanding its scripted adaptations, including its recent take on Monica Murphy’s “Things I Wanted to Say”, as part of that content push.
Asia is the fastest-growing region in MPA’s forecast, contributing 12% of ReelShort’s revenue in 2026 and rising to around $200 million, or 14% of revenue, in 2027. The company’s partnership with Thailand’s AIS, live since April, has driven significant subscriber and engagement growth. Further telco partnerships in Indonesia and the Philippines are expected to launch by the end of 2026 and contribute for a full year in 2027, while local production and distribution deals in Japan and Korea – including a co-production with Showbox – are set to launch in the fourth quarter.
MPA’s data shows a stark mismatch between where ReelShort’s users are and where its money comes from: Latin America and Asia Pacific together make up roughly three in five of an estimated 70 million global monthly users in 2026, yet generate under a fifth of revenue. North America, by contrast, delivers 59% of revenue despite a much smaller slice of the user base. Closing that gap is the main source of upside in MPA’s forecast.
MPA counts five major players in the space: ReelShort leads with an estimated 29% share, followed by DramaBox at 21%, DramaWave at 13%, NetShort at 10% and GoodShort at 6%. The remaining share is spread across roughly 300 smaller apps.
“Microdrama has begun to be an earnings story rather than a growth story,” said Vivek Couto, CEO and executive director of MPA. “Marketing costs are coming down as hit franchises bring audiences in without paid support, platform fees are falling as operators move billing onto their own web stores, and advertising is entering the mix at high margin. ReelShort is showing that the model can scale and make money at the same time. What decides the next phase is distribution and unit economics, not necessarily content volume.”
“User acquisition is the swing factor,” added Myat Pan Phyu, lead analyst for microdrama and vertical video at MPA. “It falls from 55% of revenue in 2025 to 44% by 2028 on our model, and every percentage point is worth around $10.5 million of EBITDA at this year’s scale. The reason is that less of the growth now has to be bought in the paid-social auction. Franchises bring audiences in on their own, and telco distribution adds subscribers at almost no acquisition cost. Thailand has shown that quickly, and the partnerships in Indonesia and the Philippines, along with Japan and Korea from the fourth quarter, should contribute for a full year in 2027.”
Founded in 2022 by Crazy Maple Studio, ReelShort has grown into one of the largest vertical entertainment platforms globally, surpassing 286 million downloads and attracting tens of millions of monthly active users, with more than 1,600 staff members and a network of freelance creators and production partners. Founder and CEO Joey Jia has downplayed that download milestone. “Downloads were never our dream or our goal,” he has said. “Our goal is to create diversified content that meets the demands of different audience segments, ultimately serving a wide range of viewers.”
