What's Happening?
Thanksgiving turkey prices are expected to rise significantly this year due to a reduced turkey supply caused by the highly pathogenic avian influenza. The U.S. turkey flock has reached its lowest size in nearly 40 years, leading to a 75% increase in wholesale
turkey prices since October 2024. According to Purdue University, the average retail price of a turkey is projected to be $2.05 per pound in November, a 25% increase from the previous year. Retailers who secured their turkey orders early may offer better prices, while those relying on spot market purchases could face higher costs. Major retailers like Walmart and Aldi are offering Thanksgiving dinner bundles at competitive prices to attract consumers.
Why It's Important?
The surge in turkey prices highlights the vulnerability of the food supply chain to disease outbreaks and the resulting economic impact on consumers and retailers. As Thanksgiving is a major holiday in the U.S., the increased cost of turkeys could strain household budgets and affect consumer spending on other holiday-related purchases. Retailers that managed to secure early turkey orders may benefit from increased customer traffic, while those facing higher costs may struggle to maintain competitive pricing. This situation underscores the importance of supply chain management and the need for contingency planning in the agricultural sector to mitigate the effects of such disruptions.
What's Next?
Consumers are advised to shop around for the best turkey prices, as significant savings can be found by comparing options across different retailers. Retailers may continue to leverage turkey promotions to draw in customers, potentially offering additional discounts or bundled deals. The ongoing impact of avian influenza on turkey supply will likely prompt discussions on improving biosecurity measures and disease prevention strategies within the poultry industry. Policymakers and industry stakeholders may also explore ways to enhance supply chain resilience to prevent similar disruptions in the future.
