What's Happening?
The United States has accused China of conducting a secret nuclear test in 2020, as the Trump administration seeks a broader nuclear weapons agreement that includes China and Russia. The accusation follows the expiration of the New START Treaty between
the US and Russia, which had previously limited their nuclear arsenals. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Thomas DiNanno revealed that the US government is aware of China's nuclear explosive tests, including one on June 22, 2020. The Chinese military allegedly used decoupling methods to conceal the tests, which involve reducing seismic activity to avoid detection. Despite these allegations, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) stated that their monitoring system did not detect any nuclear test explosion consistent with the characteristics described by the US.
Why It's Important?
The allegations against China highlight significant tensions in global nuclear arms control, especially as the New START Treaty has expired, leaving the US and Russia without binding constraints on their nuclear arsenals. The Trump administration's push for a new treaty that includes China reflects concerns over China's growing nuclear capabilities, which are projected to exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030. The absence of a treaty could lead to an arms race, as countries may increase their arsenals based on worst-case assumptions about each other's intentions. This situation poses a risk of miscalculation and heightened international tensions, particularly in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East.
What's Next?
Negotiating a new nuclear arms agreement that includes China is likely to be complex and time-consuming, leaving a void in arms control during a period of heightened international tension. The US aims to bring China to the negotiating table, but Beijing has consistently rebuffed trilateral arms control negotiations, citing disparities in nuclear stockpiles. The expiration of New START may prompt the US to expand its arsenal, potentially increasing Chinese concerns and encouraging negotiations. However, the process will require careful diplomacy and cooperation among nuclear powers.
