What's Happening?
Two weeks into widespread protests in Iran, the unrest is posing a significant challenge to the regime's stability, coinciding with the upcoming 47th anniversary of the 1979 revolution. The protests, marked
by images of young Iranians burning portraits of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, reflect deep public dissatisfaction. Despite the absence of a unified leadership structure, which complicates the regime's efforts to suppress the movement, the protests have not yet coalesced into a cross-sector coalition. Key economic sectors, such as oil industry workers, have not joined the protests, limiting their immediate impact. The regime remains outwardly unified, with no visible fractures within the security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij militia.
Why It's Important?
The ongoing protests in Iran highlight significant internal discontent and pose a potential threat to the regime's long-term stability. The situation underscores the challenges faced by authoritarian regimes in maintaining control amidst widespread public dissatisfaction. The protests could lead to increased international scrutiny and pressure, particularly from countries like the United States, which may consider intervention if the regime resorts to excessive force. The unrest also raises concerns about the potential for political chaos and the exploitation of instability by radical forces, which could threaten Iran's territorial integrity and regional stability.
What's Next?
The Iranian regime faces several possible trajectories. It may continue to rely on repression to contain the unrest, risking further public anger and potential international intervention. Alternatively, the protests could intensify, leading to a breakdown in the regime's control and possibly its collapse. A third scenario involves the regime recognizing its inability to contain the crisis, potentially leading to policy reversals or concessions. However, Supreme Leader Khamenei's firm stance against retreating from Iran's principles makes significant policy changes unlikely in the near term.
