What's Happening?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected a significant increase in global crude oil production, with an expected rise of about 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026. This growth is largely
attributed to non-OPEC countries, particularly Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, which are expected to contribute approximately half of this increase. Since 2023, these countries have been leading the charge in crude supply growth outside the OPEC+ group. In 2025, global output rebounded by an estimated 2.2 million bpd, with non-OPEC producers contributing about 1.7 million bpd. Brazil's production surged due to new deepwater developments, while Guyana's output has increased nearly tenfold since 2020, driven by projects in the Stabroek Block. Argentina's growth is fueled by the Vaca Muerta shale play, a major unconventional oil basin.
Why It's Important?
The increase in crude oil production from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina is significant for global energy markets, as it helps balance supply and demand dynamics, especially in the face of OPEC+ production cuts. This growth in non-OPEC production can potentially stabilize global oil prices and provide more supply security. For the U.S., this development could influence energy trade dynamics and impact domestic energy policies. The increased production from these countries also highlights the growing importance of non-OPEC players in the global oil market, which could shift geopolitical and economic power balances.
What's Next?
As Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina continue to expand their oil production capabilities, the global oil market may see further shifts in supply dynamics. Brazil plans to bring additional FPSOs online, while Guyana is set to start the Uaru project, potentially increasing its output to over 1 million bpd by 2027. Argentina's focus on the Vaca Muerta shale play suggests continued growth in unconventional oil production. These developments may prompt OPEC+ to reassess their production strategies to maintain market influence. Additionally, the U.S. may need to consider these changes in its energy policy and trade agreements.
