National Retail Federation Predicts Decline in U.S. Imports Due to Rising Tariffs

What's Happening?

The National Retail Federation (NRF) has forecasted a significant decline in U.S. import volumes for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, attributing this trend to the ongoing rise in tariffs and early inventory build-up by retailers. The NRF's Global Port Tracker report, prepared by Hackett Associates, indicates that import volumes peaked at 2.39 million TEU in July but have since begun a steady decline. The report projects that monthly import cargo volumes at major U.S. container ports will fall below two million TEU for the rest of 2025 and into early 2026. The NRF anticipates a nearly three percent decline in TEU volume for the full year of 2025. The introduction of new tariffs, including a 25 percent tariff on upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets, is expected to further impact import volumes.

Why It's Important?

The projected decline in import volumes has significant implications for the U.S. retail industry and the broader economy. Retailers may face challenges in maintaining inventory levels, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and increased costs. The tariffs could also affect consumer prices, as retailers may pass on the increased costs to consumers. Additionally, the decline in import volumes could impact port operations and related industries, potentially leading to job losses and economic slowdowns in port cities. The NRF's forecast highlights the broader economic uncertainty caused by trade policies and the potential for further tariffs, which could exacerbate these challenges.

What's Next?

The NRF has not yet released its forecast for holiday sales in 2025, but it has expressed concerns about the impact of the current government shutdown on consumer confidence. The NRF warns that the economic uncertainty caused by the shutdown could further erode consumer confidence ahead of the holiday season. The organization also notes that the current deadline for an agreement with China is November 10, and unless extended, more tariffs could be introduced, further affecting import volumes.