What's Happening?
Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea regarding access to the Red Sea port of Assab are hindering the full implementation of the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which aimed to end the conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region. While large-scale fighting
has ceased, key commitments of the peace deal, such as the withdrawal of foreign forces, restoration of Tigrayan administration in Western Tigray, and complete disarmament of Tigrayan forces, remain selectively applied. Ethiopia, a landlocked nation since Eritrea's independence in 1993, seeks access to the Red Sea, viewing it as a historical right and a necessity for its 150 million people. This pursuit has intensified the dispute with Eritrea, which considers control of its coastline, including Assab, a matter of national sovereignty. The incomplete implementation of the peace agreement is seen as beneficial to various parties, including the Ethiopian federal government, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), and Eritrea, as it allows them to leverage the ongoing instability for their respective strategic interests. The TPLF, for instance, has not fully disarmed, citing the lack of restoration of Tigrayan administration in Western Tigray and the potential need for protection if tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea escalate.
Why It's Important?
The unresolved tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, particularly over the Red Sea port, have transformed the Tigray peace deal into a political instrument, undermining efforts for lasting stability in the region. The continued selective implementation of the Pretoria Agreement means that critical issues like the return of displaced people and political reintegration of Tigray remain unaddressed. This situation creates a volatile environment where the risk of renewed civil war persists, as evidenced by reports of residents fleeing the region and accusations of military preparations. The dispute over Assab is not merely a commercial or territorial issue; it is deeply intertwined with national identity and historical grievances for both Ethiopia and Eritrea. For Ethiopia, securing sea access is framed as overcoming a 'geographic prison,' while for Eritrea, maintaining control over its coastline is a hard-won aspect of its independence. The inability to fully implement the peace deal also impacts regional stability, as it allows for informal tactical alignments and proxy conflicts, with each side using the other's actions to justify their own incomplete adherence to the agreement. The ongoing instability in Tigray, a strategically important region bordering Eritrea, further complicates border security and regional power dynamics.
What's Next?
Preventing a return to full-scale war in the Tigray region necessitates two interconnected processes. Firstly, Ethiopia and Eritrea must peacefully address the Assab dispute, encompassing port access, sovereignty, and alleged support for armed groups, as the Pretoria Agreement was not designed to resolve this specific bilateral issue. Secondly, the implementation of the Tigray peace deal requires a verifiable order of actions: the withdrawal of foreign and non-federal forces, the restoration of Tigrayan administration in Western Tigray, the safe return of displaced populations, the disarmament of Tigrayan forces, and their political reintegration. These steps are crucial to reduce the opportunities for external interference and internal conflict. The current impasse, where each side demands the other move first on their obligations, particularly regarding disarmament and territorial control, continues to displace over 760,000 Tigrayans. The federal government's reluctance to restore strategically important areas to a divided Tigrayan leadership, fearing confrontation with Amhara political and military actors, further complicates the path forward. The TPLF's continued military leverage, due to its exclusion from the June 2026 election, also presents a challenge to political reintegration.
Beyond the Headlines
The ongoing stalemate in the Tigray peace process, exacerbated by the Ethiopia-Eritrea Red Sea port dispute, highlights a deeper issue of how regional rivalries can undermine internal peace agreements. The framing of the Red Sea access as a 'historical right' by Ethiopia and a matter of 'independence' by Eritrea reveals the profound nationalistic and historical narratives at play, making a peaceful resolution more complex than a simple territorial negotiation. The selective implementation of the Pretoria Agreement by all parties demonstrates a strategic calculus where short-term political and security gains are prioritized over comprehensive peace. This approach risks perpetuating a cycle of instability, where the absence of large-scale conflict does not equate to genuine peace, but rather a 'conflict consolidation' where underlying grievances and power imbalances remain. The situation also raises ethical concerns regarding the plight of displaced populations, who are caught in a security contest they did not create. The political exclusion of the TPLF from the June 2026 election further underscores the challenge of achieving lasting peace without inclusive political processes, as it incentivizes armed power as a means of leverage. The accusations and counter-accusations between the federal government and the TPLF regarding alliances with Eritrea also illustrate the complex and often opaque nature of regional geopolitics, where perceived threats can be used to justify domestic policies and actions.
