What's Happening?
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is strategically realigning Saudi Arabia's regional alliances by moving closer to Turkey and Qatar, rather than deepening ties with Israel and the United States. This shift is based on the assumption that Iran's
regime will remain stable, allowing Saudi Arabia to maintain flexibility in its foreign policy. Historically, Saudi Arabia has benefited from the Abraham Accords without formally joining them, extracting security advantages while maintaining political independence. However, the consolidation of the Israel-US-UAE axis into a robust strategic bloc is occurring without Saudi Arabia's central involvement, potentially diminishing its influence. In response, Saudi Arabia is hedging its bets by engaging with Turkey and Qatar, which offer military and financial leverage, respectively. This approach is seen as a way to balance modernization efforts with maintaining Sunni legitimacy, but it risks empowering future regional rivals.
Why It's Important?
The realignment of Saudi Arabia's foreign policy has significant implications for Middle Eastern geopolitics. By distancing itself from the Israel-US-UAE axis, Saudi Arabia may lose influence over regional security dynamics and economic integration efforts. The move towards Turkey and Qatar could alter the balance of power in the region, potentially leading to increased competition and conflict. Additionally, Saudi Arabia's strategy reflects internal pressures, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman navigates domestic challenges related to social liberalization and economic reform. The decision to align with Turkey and Qatar may provide short-term stability but could undermine Saudi Arabia's long-term strategic leadership in the region. This shift also highlights the complexities of Middle Eastern alliances, where historical rivalries and emerging threats continuously reshape political landscapes.
What's Next?
Saudi Arabia's future role in the Middle East will depend on the stability of Iran's regime and the evolving dynamics of regional alliances. If Iran's influence wanes, the region could see a reordering of power, with Turkey and Qatar potentially challenging Saudi interests. The consolidation of the Israel-US-UAE axis may continue to progress without Saudi involvement, further marginalizing its influence. Domestically, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman faces the challenge of balancing modernization with maintaining religious legitimacy, which could impact his ability to implement reforms. As Saudi Arabia navigates these complex dynamics, its foreign policy decisions will be closely watched by regional and global stakeholders, with potential implications for security, economic cooperation, and diplomatic relations.
