What's Happening?
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is increasingly focusing on artificial intelligence (AI) and unmanned ground units, moving away from fully autonomous weapons as a primary goal. Chinese military writers, after studying Russia's war in Ukraine, have
concluded that AI's main value lies in shortening the 'kill chain' by accelerating targeting, planning, and strikes, rather than in complete autonomy. This shift is evident in the PLA's development of intelligent strike-planning systems, unmanned ground formations capable of remote control and autonomous action, and advanced counter-drone capabilities. For instance, a September 2025 military parade in Beijing showcased unmanned ground units, and a PLA brigade trained in counter-drone tactics using equipment that can detect and identify over 800 commercial drone models. The PLA is also exploring the use of deepfake technologies for cognitive warfare, aiming to deceive and shape the information battlefield. These efforts highlight China's commitment to integrating AI into its military modernization, with a strong emphasis on domestic control over essential resources like combat data, computing power, chips, and AI models.
Why It's Important?
This strategic shift by the PLA has significant implications for global military dynamics and the future of warfare. By prioritizing AI in accelerating military operations and enhancing unmanned systems, China is positioning itself as a leader in 'intelligentized' warfare. The focus on domestic control of AI resources, including data, chips, and networks, reflects a broader national security strategy to reduce reliance on foreign technology, particularly in light of lessons learned from Russia's war in Ukraine regarding hardware dependencies. This could lead to a more self-sufficient and technologically advanced Chinese military, potentially altering the balance of power in regions like the Indo-Pacific. For the U.S. and its allies, this development necessitates a re-evaluation of defense strategies and investments in AI and counter-AI technologies to maintain a competitive edge. The emphasis on cognitive warfare through deepfakes also raises concerns about information manipulation and its potential impact on international relations and public perception during conflicts.
What's Next?
In the coming months, observers should anticipate the establishment of a system-wide method within the PLA for collecting military training data, the formation of specialized units dedicated to employing unmanned systems, and exercises designed to test these systems in heavily-jammed environments. These steps are crucial for the PLA to refine its AI-driven warfare capabilities and address existing shortcomings in doctrine and combat experience. Furthermore, China's continued investment in domestic AI development and its efforts to achieve technological sovereignty will likely intensify, potentially leading to further advancements in military AI applications. The international community, particularly the U.S., will closely monitor these developments, potentially responding with increased research and development in AI defense, counter-cognitive warfare strategies, and efforts to secure critical technology supply chains.
Beyond the Headlines
The PLA's evolving AI strategy raises profound ethical and legal questions regarding the role of AI in warfare. While the current focus is on AI as an accelerator rather than fully autonomous weapons, the rapid advancements in AI technology could blur these lines in the future. The concept of 'humans in the loop, machines speeding up' is a current guiding principle, but concerns about the erosion of human-machine authority in the pursuit of efficiency are already being voiced within the PLA. The use of deepfake technology for cognitive warfare also presents a new frontier in information ethics, where the deliberate creation of false narratives could have far-reaching consequences beyond the battlefield. This shift underscores a broader global trend where technological prowess, particularly in AI, is becoming a critical determinant of military strength and geopolitical influence, prompting a re-evaluation of international norms and regulations concerning AI in armed conflict.
