What's Happening?
Colombia is experiencing a significant increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports due to a decline in domestic natural gas production and the anticipated impact of a strong El Niño weather pattern. According to Gestor del Mercado de Gas Natural en Columbia
(BEC), average annual marketed natural gas production in Colombia decreased from 1,070 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) in 2022 to 772 MMcf/d in 2025, with a further drop to 673 MMcf/d between January and August 2026. This decline is attributed to the aging of major gas fields like Cusiana, Cupiagua, Pauto Sur, and the offshore Guajira fields, without new large discoveries to replace them. Proved reserves also fell by 39% to 1.7 trillion cubic feet between 2022 and 2025. As a result, LNG imports reached a record 31% of Colombia’s monthly natural gas supply in July 2026. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued an El Niño Advisory, indicating a greater than 83% chance of a strong to very-strong event through the first quarter of 2027, which typically brings drier-than-normal weather and reduces hydropower availability, further increasing the demand for natural gas-fired electricity.
Why It's Important?
The shift in Colombia's energy landscape has significant implications for its energy security and economic stability. The increased reliance on LNG imports makes the country more susceptible to global natural gas price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions. This situation also highlights the challenges faced by nations with declining domestic fossil fuel reserves, pushing them towards either greater import dependency or accelerated development of alternative energy sources. For the U.S., this could mean increased demand for its LNG exports, potentially bolstering its position as a global energy supplier. However, it also underscores the broader global energy transition dilemma, where immediate energy needs often conflict with long-term climate goals. The reliance on natural gas for electricity generation, especially during El Niño events, demonstrates the vulnerability of hydropower-dependent grids to climate variability.
What's Next?
Colombia is actively working to expand its LNG import infrastructure to cope with the rising demand. The capacity of the existing SPEC LNG terminal near Cartagena is being expanded, with completion expected in 2026. Additionally, new projects like the Buenaventura LNG terminal are targeting startup by November 2026, and the Puerto Bahia and Ballenas LNG Terminals could begin operations next year. If the strong El Niño persists as predicted by NOAA, natural gas is expected to play an even larger role in Colombia's electricity generation mix. This will likely lead to continued high levels of LNG imports and potentially further investments in gas-fired power plants to ensure energy stability during periods of reduced hydropower availability. The long-term strategy will likely involve balancing these immediate energy needs with efforts to diversify the energy matrix.
Beyond the Headlines
The situation in Colombia reflects a broader global trend where countries are grappling with the dual challenges of energy security and climate change. While the immediate solution involves increasing natural gas imports to compensate for declining domestic production and hydropower shortfalls, this approach has environmental implications. The reliance on fossil fuels, even natural gas, contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, posing a challenge to Colombia's climate commitments. This scenario could also spur greater investment in renewable energy sources in the long run, as the volatility of both domestic fossil fuel production and climate-dependent hydropower becomes more apparent. The development of new LNG import terminals also raises questions about the long-term economic viability of such infrastructure in a world transitioning to cleaner energy, potentially leading to stranded assets if the energy mix shifts rapidly.
