What's Happening?
The United States has undergone a significant shift in its strategy towards China over the past decade, moving away from the belief that engaging Beijing would lead to liberalization and integration into
a U.S.-led world order. This change was initially driven by President Trump, who prompted a rethinking of China policy, and continued under the Biden administration, which maintained many of Trump's approaches. Despite expectations of a new Cold War, the current Trump administration has taken a softer stance on issues such as TikTok, semiconductor export controls, and Taiwan, with minimal opposition from Congress or the public. This shift in strategy coincides with a broader American crisis of self-belief, characterized by doubts about the nation's strength and competence, and a growing isolationist sentiment.
Why It's Important?
The evolving U.S. strategy towards China is significant as it reflects deeper challenges within American society, including eroded public trust and a crisis of self-belief. This impacts the nation's ability to unite around strategic objectives and sustain efforts in great-power competition. The lack of a 'Sputnik moment' of national awakening and mobilization suggests that the U.S. may struggle to effectively compete with China in strategic sectors. The focus on modest goals tied to domestic renewal, such as preserving sovereignty and deterring China from risking war over Taiwan, highlights the need for a sustainable strategy amid doubt and division. The implications for U.S. industries, particularly in technology and defense, are profound, as policymakers aim to reduce dependence on China and secure a competitive edge.
What's Next?
U.S. leaders are encouraged to focus on achievable goals that support domestic renewal and strategic competition with China. This includes reducing dependence on Chinese imports in critical sectors and increasing investment in technology and defense. Policymakers are urged to adopt measurable targets, such as reducing pharmaceutical ingredient dependence and securing a share of chip manufacturing. The emphasis on technology as a central element in competition with China underscores the need for strategic partnerships with allies. Additionally, there is a call for stronger investment in hard power to deter potential conflicts, with leaders needing to make a persuasive case for increased defense spending.
Beyond the Headlines
The broader crisis of self-belief in America poses ethical and cultural challenges, as isolationism and self-loathing hinder the projection of American power. The need to cultivate faith in America's capacity to achieve significant goals is crucial, with initiatives in weaponry, energy, and advanced manufacturing serving as examples of patriotic innovation. Encouraging similar efforts in finance, media, and academia could help restore confidence and support strategic objectives. The risk of war and the cost of failure to deter conflict highlight the importance of preparedness and investment in defense.
