What's Happening?
A new study conducted by the Horizon Europe consortium TaCT-FoRSED, coordinated by the University of Passau, has examined the prevalence and influence of conspiracy beliefs in Germany. Despite Germany being considered a well-established democracy, the study found
that conspiracy narratives are no longer a marginal phenomenon and have become more politically and socially influential in recent years. While nationwide figures suggest Germany has moderate levels of belief in conspiracy theories compared to other European countries—with 12.8% agreeing that a 'small secret group' makes important world political decisions, the second-lowest in the EU after Sweden—the study highlights that these beliefs are deeply entrenched in specific regions and social groups. For instance, 73.5% of AfD supporters exhibit a pronounced conspiracy mentality, and eastern Germany is disproportionately affected. The research, which will be published as a pre-print in October and in print in early 2027, also notes that high expectations of the 'nanny state' and a historical skepticism towards 'conventional medicine' were significantly mobilized during the pandemic.
Why It's Important?
The findings are important because they challenge the simplistic notion that more democracy automatically leads to less belief in conspiracy theories. The study reveals that even in robust democracies, specific societal vulnerabilities and cultural underpinnings can foster the entrenchment of such beliefs. This has significant implications for political stability and public trust in institutions like elections, science, and media. The rise of political parties like the AfD, which has become the second-strongest party in the Bundestag since 2025, demonstrates how conspiracy ideologies can be harnessed by political movements, making them a potent force in shaping public discourse and policy. The study suggests that strategies focusing solely on individual media literacy may be insufficient, emphasizing the need for stronger institutional counterbalances such as independent courts, robust public service broadcasting, and comprehensive political education to safeguard democratic resilience.
What's Next?
The study's findings are expected to inform future strategies for combating the spread and influence of conspiracy theories in Germany and potentially other European nations. The research team, which also examined Austria, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, France, Slovakia, Spain, and the United Kingdom, aims to provide a comparative analysis that could lead to more effective countermeasures. The emphasis on strengthening democratic structures, such as expanding direct and deliberative democracy and supporting the voluntary sector, suggests a shift towards systemic interventions rather than solely individual-focused approaches. Policymakers and civil society groups may leverage these insights to develop targeted educational programs and institutional reforms designed to enhance political agency and trust, particularly in regions and social groups identified as highly susceptible to conspiracy thinking. The ongoing work of the Horizon Europe consortium TaCT-FoRSED will continue to explore these dynamics and potential solutions.
Beyond the Headlines
The study's exploration of the cultural underpinnings of conspiracy beliefs, such as the 'nanny state' expectation and historical skepticism towards conventional medicine, reveals deeper societal narratives that contribute to their persistence. This suggests that addressing conspiracy theories requires more than just debunking false information; it necessitates an understanding and engagement with the underlying cultural and psychological factors that make individuals receptive to such narratives. The observation that conspiracy theorists promise a form of 'veto power' to those who feel they have little political influence highlights a critical democratic deficit. This points to the need for fostering genuine political participation and a sense of agency among citizens. The memory of the Weimar Republic's failure is cited as a counterbalance, underscoring the historical consciousness that can either fortify or undermine democratic institutions, depending on how it is invoked and understood in contemporary discourse. The study implicitly calls for a holistic approach that integrates historical awareness, cultural sensitivity, and institutional strengthening to build resilient democracies.
