What's Happening?
Migration to developed countries decreased for the second year in a row in 2025, according to a report released by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The 38 member countries of
the OECD collectively received 6.1 million new permanent immigrants in 2025, marking a 1.6 percent reduction from the 6.2 million recorded the previous year. Despite this decline, the overall number of permanent immigrants remains 12 percent higher than in 2019. The report indicates a significant 26 percent drop in humanitarian migration through legal channels in 2025 compared to 2024, while labor migration saw a 13 percent increase. The United States experienced a 14 percent decrease in permanent immigrants but still accepted the highest number among OECD nations, exceeding 1.2 million in 2025. Conversely, some countries like Portugal, Spain, and Italy saw notable increases due to policy changes and backlogs in permit approvals. Asylum applications to OECD countries, excluding the U.S., also fell by 22 percent in 2025, though they remained about 10 percent above 2019 levels. India, China, and Colombia were identified as the top countries of origin for migrants in 2024.
Why It's Important?
This trend of declining migration to developed countries, including the U.S., carries significant implications for economic and social policies. The OECD highlights that migration is crucial for boosting long-term productivity, especially as populations in many developed nations age. Mark Pearson, the OECD’s acting director for employment, labor, and social affairs, noted that the OECD's working-age population is projected to decrease by eight percent by 2060, which could hinder overall economic growth. Immigrants currently constitute 16 percent of employment across OECD countries, a three percentage point increase over the last decade, and their labor force participation rates often exceed those of native-born workers. The report underscores that the key challenge for policymakers is not whether migration is beneficial, but how to optimize policies to maximize its potential contributions to productivity and living standards. A sustained decline in immigration could exacerbate labor shortages and demographic challenges in countries like the U.S., impacting economic growth and the sustainability of social welfare systems.
What's Next?
The OECD's findings suggest that member countries, including the United States, will need to re-evaluate their immigration policies to address demographic shifts and maintain economic vitality. With a projected decrease in the working-age population across the OECD, governments may consider policy adjustments to attract and integrate immigrants more effectively, particularly those with in-demand skills. The report emphasizes that the focus should be on how policies can maximize the potential benefits of migration, rather than debating its inherent value. This could lead to discussions about streamlining legal migration pathways, addressing backlogs in residency permits, and developing programs that better match immigrant skills with labor market needs. The observed decline in humanitarian migration and rise in labor migration may also prompt a re-assessment of humanitarian aid and asylum policies versus economic migration strategies. Future policy debates in the U.S. and other OECD nations are likely to center on balancing national security concerns with economic imperatives and demographic realities.
Beyond the Headlines
The decline in migration, particularly humanitarian migration, reflects a broader global trend influenced by various factors, including stricter immigration policies in some Western countries and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. The report's emphasis on the economic benefits of migration, particularly in the context of aging populations, highlights a potential disconnect between public sentiment in some nations and economic realities. The backlash against irregular migrants, as noted in the report, often overshadows the documented positive impact of immigration on labor markets and productivity. This situation presents a complex challenge for policymakers: how to craft immigration policies that are both economically beneficial and socially acceptable. The differing experiences of OECD countries, with some seeing increases in immigration due to policy changes while others experience declines, underscore the impact of national policy choices. The long-term implications could include increased competition for skilled labor globally and a potential widening of demographic disparities between nations that embrace immigration and those that restrict it, ultimately affecting global economic competitiveness and social cohesion.
