What's Happening?
Hezbollah has issued a warning to the Lebanese government regarding its plans to expand disarmament efforts across the country. Senior Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qmati stated that extending state control
over weapons beyond southern Lebanon could lead to chaos and potentially civil war. This warning comes as Lebanon aims to bring all arms under state control, in accordance with a 2024 agreement that ended a conflict with Israel. Hezbollah, however, maintains that the agreement only applies to the southern region near the Israeli border and has rejected any move to disarm elsewhere. The Lebanese army has recently taken control of the area between the Litani River and Israel's border, and the Lebanese cabinet has requested a briefing on further disarmament plans.
Why It's Important?
The situation highlights the ongoing tension between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, as well as the broader geopolitical implications involving Israel. Hezbollah's resistance to disarmament beyond southern Lebanon underscores the group's significant influence and the potential for internal conflict if the government proceeds with its plans. This development could impact regional stability, as Israel continues to pressure Lebanon to fully implement the disarmament agreement. The potential for civil unrest poses a risk to Lebanon's fragile political and economic environment, affecting both domestic and international stakeholders.
What's Next?
The Lebanese army is expected to brief the cabinet in early February on its plans for disarmament in other parts of the country. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has set conditions for further disarmament discussions, including the withdrawal of Israeli forces from certain positions in southern Lebanon and the cessation of airstrikes. The Lebanese government will need to navigate these demands carefully to avoid escalating tensions. International observers will likely monitor the situation closely, given its potential impact on regional security and diplomatic relations.
