What's Happening?
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has released its 2025-2026 Winter Reliability Assessment, indicating that peak demand on the bulk power system will be 20 GW higher this winter
compared to last year. However, the total resources to meet this demand have only increased by 9.4 GW. Despite this mismatch, NERC assures that all regions should have sufficient resources for expected peak demand, although extreme weather could pose challenges. Since last winter, 11 GW of batteries and 8 GW of demand response resources have been added, but wind resource contributions are 14 GW lower due to capacity accounting changes. NERC recommends grid operators review seasonal plans, generation owners complete winter readiness efforts, and balancing authorities conduct fuel surveys.
Why It's Important?
The report highlights the growing demand for electricity, driven by data center development in regions like the U.S. West, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic. This demand growth is contributing to lower reserve margins, signaling a need for more resources. The slow pace of new resource additions, particularly thermal and hydro generation, underscores the need for policy and market changes to bring resources online more quickly. The assessment points to potential risks in regions like New England and Texas, where gas shortages and strong load growth could lead to supply shortfalls during extreme cold conditions.
What's Next?
NERC's recommendations aim to mitigate risks associated with winter peak demand. Grid operators are advised to review seasonal operating plans, while generation owners should focus on winter readiness and weatherization efforts. Balancing authorities are encouraged to implement generator fuel surveys to ensure adequate fuel supplies. These steps are crucial to maintaining reliability and preventing outages during peak demand periods.
