What's Happening?
Under Xi Jinping, China has entered a 'security first' era, broadening the definition of security with his concept of 'holistic national security' since 2014. This approach integrates traditional and non-traditional
security ideas, encompassing political, military, economic, cultural, social, science and technology, information, ecological, resource, and nuclear aspects. Chinese thinkers are focusing on 'struggle and survival' in a period of 'great changes unseen in a century,' a phrase popularized by political scientist Yuan Peng. This perspective views the world as entering a protracted period of disorder, with China aiming to build security from the ground up rather than relying on global institutions. Beijing is also promoting the 'democratization of the global order' as an asymmetrical response to what it perceives as Washington's system of international alliances, particularly by offering to protect the sovereignty of countries in the Global South and advocating for 'non-alignment' or 'multi-alignment.'
Why It's Important?
China's 'security first' strategy and its ambition to reshape the international order have profound implications for the U.S. and its allies. The U.S. is perceived by Chinese intellectuals as intentionally polarizing the world to maintain its hegemony, framing the contest as democracies versus autocracies. This Chinese perspective directly challenges the U.S.-led liberal international order and its alliance system. China's efforts to champion 'non-alignment' and 'equal-footing diplomacy' among developing countries could undermine U.S. influence and alliances, particularly in the Global South. The shift from an economic growth-focused strategy to one fixated on security, even at significant cost, indicates a more assertive and self-reliant China on the global stage. This strategic reorientation suggests a long-term competition for global influence, where China seeks to create an alternative world order less defined by Western hegemony, impacting global governance, trade, and security frameworks.
What's Next?
China is actively implementing its 'security first' and 'democratization of international relations' concepts through initiatives like the Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI), and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI). These '3Gs' are designed to attract countries, especially in the Global South, by offering principles rather than specific plans, thereby avoiding direct confrontation with the U.S. while expanding its influence. Chinese leaders are expected to continue testing their thinking in response to global conflicts, promoting their ideas of leaning into disorder and fostering multi-alignment. The U.S. and its allies will likely face increasing pressure to adapt their foreign policy strategies to counter China's growing influence and its efforts to redefine global norms. This will involve navigating complex diplomatic challenges, strengthening existing alliances, and potentially re-evaluating engagement strategies with countries that are drawn to China's 'non-alignment 2.0' approach.
Beyond the Headlines
The 'security first' paradigm in China, coupled with the intellectual framework of 'struggle and survival,' reveals a deep-seated historical consciousness within the Chinese leadership, drawing parallels to past periods of national humiliation. This historical lens informs China's current foreign policy, emphasizing resilience and self-protection in a turbulent world. The concept of 'democratizing the global order' is not merely a diplomatic slogan but reflects a fundamental critique of Western-centric international institutions and norms. This approach could lead to a fragmentation of the global order, with parallel institutions and norms emerging, potentially creating a more multipolar and less predictable international system. The long-term implications include a potential shift in global power dynamics, where economic and military might are increasingly intertwined with ideological competition. The U.S. and its allies will need to understand these underlying philosophical and historical drivers to effectively respond to China's evolving global strategy, which aims not to overthrow the entire international order but to survive and thrive within a perceived state of disorder.
