What's Happening?
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington has projected an increase in child mortality rates for the first time this century. According to their estimates,
child deaths under the age of five are expected to rise from 4.6 million in 2024 to 4.8 million in 2025. This reversal in a decades-long trend of declining child mortality is attributed to significant cuts in foreign aid, which has dropped from $49 billion in 2024 to $36 billion in 2025. The IHME's model, which forecasts future child mortality based on factors like health spending, highlights the impact of reduced foreign aid on health outcomes in low-income countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The U.S. State Department has not commented on these findings.
Why It's Important?
The projected increase in child mortality underscores the critical role of foreign aid in supporting global health initiatives. The reduction in aid from high-income countries, including the U.S., the UK, France, and Germany, poses a significant threat to health services in low-income regions. These cuts could lead to a deterioration in healthcare infrastructure, affecting the delivery of essential services such as vaccinations and maternal care. The potential rise in child deaths highlights the broader implications of shifting international priorities and the need for sustained investment in global health to prevent setbacks in progress made over the past two decades.
What's Next?
The IHME's projections suggest that if current funding cuts persist, up to 12 million additional child deaths could occur by 2045. Conversely, a recommitment to 2024 funding levels could save 12 million children through health innovations. The future of global health funding remains uncertain, and countries may need to reassess their contributions to international aid. The Gates Foundation's annual Goalkeepers Report, which includes these findings, calls for renewed focus on development goals and highlights the potential for new health interventions to mitigate the impact of funding cuts.
