What is the story about?
What's Happening?
The ADP National Employment Report for September 2025 reveals a decline in private sector employment, with 32,000 jobs lost. This report, produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, highlights a cautious approach to hiring by U.S. employers despite previous economic growth. The report also notes a steady year-over-year pay increase of 4.5% for job-stayers, while pay gains for job-changers slowed to 6.6%. The employment decline was most pronounced in the Midwest, which lost 63,000 jobs, while the Northeast saw a gain of 21,000 jobs. The report also details changes by industry, establishment size, and region, providing a comprehensive view of the labor market dynamics.
Why It's Important?
The decline in private sector employment signals potential challenges for the U.S. economy, as job creation loses momentum across various sectors. This trend could impact consumer spending and economic growth, as employment is a key driver of economic activity. The steady pay growth for job-stayers suggests some stability in income levels, which may help mitigate the impact of job losses. However, the slowdown in pay gains for job-changers indicates potential difficulties for those seeking new employment opportunities. The regional disparities in job changes highlight the uneven economic recovery across the country, which could influence policy decisions and business strategies.
What's Next?
ADP's preliminary rebenchmarking of the National Employment Report, based on full-year 2024 results, suggests further adjustments may be needed in future reports. The October 2025 ADP National Employment Report is scheduled for release on November 5, 2025, which will provide updated insights into employment trends. Policymakers and business leaders may need to consider strategies to stimulate job growth and address regional disparities. The ongoing analysis of pay insights by U.S. state, gender, and age could inform targeted interventions to support affected groups.
Beyond the Headlines
The recalibration of employment data due to missing or redacted values in the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages highlights challenges in accurately measuring labor market dynamics. This issue underscores the importance of robust data collection and analysis to inform economic policy and business decisions. The reliance on ADP's fine-grained data for insights into the labor market reflects the growing role of data-driven approaches in understanding complex economic phenomena.
AI Generated Content
Do you find this article useful?
