What's Happening?
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced the completion of its troop withdrawal from Yemen, a move executed with notable speed and efficiency. This development leaves uncertainty regarding the UAE's
continued financial and commercial support for the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which controls significant areas in southwestern Yemen. Historically, the UAE's involvement in Yemen has been framed as part of a coalition supporting the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG) against ISIS and Houthi forces. However, the UAE's substantial commercial presence in Yemen has led to speculation that its primary interest may be economic rather than purely military. The UAE's influence in regions like Socotra has been bolstered through commercial activities, including tourism and telecommunications, creating dependencies that may now be at risk.
Why It's Important?
The UAE's withdrawal from Yemen could significantly impact the balance of power in the region. The STC, which has been a key player in the conflict, may find itself weakened without UAE support, potentially altering the dynamics of the ongoing civil war. This shift could affect the IRG's ability to reassert control over southern Yemen, a crucial step towards ending the conflict. The withdrawal also raises questions about the future of UAE's commercial interests in Yemen, which have been substantial. The potential reduction in UAE influence could lead to increased instability, affecting regional security and economic interests, particularly in shipping lanes near Yemen.
What's Next?
The withdrawal may lead to continued stand-offs between IRG-backed Saudi forces and STC militias, not only in Socotra but across southern Yemen. The STC's leader, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, has been charged with high treason and is in hiding, complicating the STC's position. The IRG's efforts to regain control could be a precursor to ending the civil war, which is necessary for securing shipping channels off Yemen. Observers suggest that reestablishing government authority in southern Yemen is essential for peace, but the process is expected to be challenging.
Beyond the Headlines
The UAE's withdrawal highlights the complex interplay between military and commercial interests in conflict zones. The situation in Yemen underscores the challenges of balancing national security objectives with economic ambitions. The UAE's approach has drawn comparisons to historical examples of commercial-military engagements, such as the British East India Company. This development may prompt a reevaluation of how nations engage in foreign conflicts, particularly when commercial interests are at stake.
