What's Happening?
China's crude oil imports rose by nearly 5% in 2025, reaching 11.6 million barrels per day, according to the General Administration of Customs in China. This increase is attributed to a shift in sourcing, with a significant rise in imports from Canada
and Brazil, while imports from the U.S. and Russia declined. The expansion of the Transmountain Pipeline has facilitated increased Canadian exports to China, which are expected to grow by 50% by 2030. The U.S. saw a 61% decrease in exports to China due to increased tariffs, while Russian imports accounted for 11% of China's seaborne supply. Despite these changes, the overall growth in seaborne volumes was less than 1% year-on-year, with a notable increase in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Why It's Important?
The shift in China's crude oil import patterns has significant implications for global trade and the crude tanker market, which relies heavily on Chinese demand. The reduction in U.S. exports to China highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and trade policies on international energy markets. The increased reliance on Canadian and Brazilian oil could alter global shipping routes and affect the economic dynamics of oil-exporting countries. Additionally, the changes in import sources have shortened sailing distances, impacting the logistics and costs associated with crude oil transportation.
What's Next?
Looking ahead, China's oil consumption is expected to increase modestly in 2026, with seaborne volumes potentially growing at a slower pace. The International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipate continued support from stockpiling, which may influence future import patterns. The ongoing trade negotiations between China and Canada could further solidify Canada's position as a key supplier, while U.S. exporters may need to explore alternative markets or strategies to regain their share in the Chinese market.
