What's Happening?
A joint study by Deloitte and Google forecasts that Spain is projected to surpass France as the world's most-visited country by 2040. While France currently holds the top spot, welcoming 102 million international visitors in 2025 compared to Spain's 96.8
million, the growth trajectory suggests a shift. The forecast, initially published in 2024 and recently highlighted by Time Out, predicts nearly 1 billion additional international trips by 2040. This model, built from billions of Google searches and over 90,000 tourism data points, projects Spain to receive 110 million international arrivals in 2040, ahead of France at 105 million and the United States at 100 million. Both countries are expected to see continued growth in visitor numbers, but Spain's growth rate is anticipated to be significantly higher, adding 26.5 million arrivals from its 2019 baseline compared to France's 14.1 million. The ranking focuses on international arrivals rather than tourism revenue.
Why It's Important?
This projection highlights a significant potential shift in global tourism leadership, with implications for national economies and tourism strategies. For the U.S., while projected to be a top destination, the rise of Spain and continued strength of France indicate intense global competition for tourism dollars. The study underscores the importance of adapting to evolving international travel patterns, income changes, and technological advancements in attracting visitors. Countries heavily reliant on tourism, like France, will need to intensify efforts in sustainable tourism and destination development to maintain their competitive edge. The U.S. tourism industry can learn from these trends, potentially adjusting marketing and infrastructure investments to capture a larger share of the growing global travel market. The focus on international arrivals rather than revenue also suggests a broader impact on cultural exchange and international relations, beyond just economic gains.
What's Next?
Both France and Spain are expected to continue investing in their tourism sectors. France aims to become the world's leading sustainable tourism destination by the end of the decade and is working towards a €100 billion target for international tourism receipts by 2030. Spain's tourism expenditure by international tourists reached €134.7 billion in 2025, indicating strong financial performance. The modeled estimate for 2040 suggests that international travel patterns will continue to evolve, necessitating ongoing adaptation from both countries. The U.S. and other major tourism destinations will likely monitor these trends closely, potentially adjusting their own tourism development strategies, infrastructure projects, and marketing campaigns to remain competitive in a dynamic global tourism landscape. The study's exclusion of political stability and natural events means that unforeseen global events could alter these projections.
Beyond the Headlines
The projected shift in tourism leadership reflects deeper trends in global travel, including the increasing diversification of popular destinations and the impact of digital platforms on travel planning. The study's methodology, leveraging Google searches and extensive data points, highlights the growing role of big data and predictive analytics in understanding and shaping the tourism industry. This also points to the potential for new tourism hubs to emerge as global travel expands beyond traditional hotspots. The emphasis on sustainable tourism by France indicates a growing awareness of environmental impact within the industry, a trend that will likely influence future travel choices and destination development worldwide. For the U.S., understanding these global shifts is crucial for maintaining its appeal and ensuring its tourism sector remains robust and adaptable to future challenges and opportunities.
