What's Happening?
The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) has released its 23rd annual Global Payments Report, projecting that global payments revenue will reach $2.4 trillion by 2029. However, the annual growth rate is expected to slow to four percent over the next five years, a decrease from the 8.8 percent growth rate observed since 2019. This slowdown is attributed to a foundational reset in the industry driven by emerging technologies such as agentic AI and real-time payments. The report notes that transaction-based revenues will remain strong despite the moderation in overall growth rates. Latin America is anticipated to lead in revenue growth at 7.9 percent annually from 2024 to 2029, followed by the Middle East and Africa at 6.8 percent.
Why It's Important?
The findings of the BCG report underscore significant shifts in the global payments industry, with new technologies poised to reshape the landscape. Agentic AI is expected to influence over $1 trillion in e-commerce spending, with 81 percent of U.S. consumers likely to use these tools for shopping. This technological evolution could redefine online purchasing behaviors. Additionally, the rapid growth of real-time account-to-account payments, which now account for a quarter of all digital retail payments worldwide, highlights the increasing demand for faster and more efficient payment systems. These changes present opportunities for fintech companies and digital currency platforms to innovate and capture market share.
What's Next?
As traditional growth levers lose momentum, industry players are expected to focus on aligning with new drivers such as agentic systems, programmable money, and fintech innovation. Companies that successfully integrate these capabilities into their business models and customer value propositions are likely to emerge as leaders in the next decade. The report suggests that payments-focused fintechs, which are expanding rapidly, will continue to attract significant investment and drive industry transformation. Furthermore, the adoption of real-time payment systems in emerging markets is projected to exceed 50 percent by 2030, indicating a global shift towards more efficient payment solutions.
Beyond the Headlines
The report also highlights the role of digital currencies, noting that stablecoins generated over $26 trillion in transaction volume in 2024. Despite this, real-world payments account for only a small fraction of this total, with most activity linked to cryptocurrency trading. This suggests that while digital currencies are gaining traction, their integration into everyday transactions remains limited. The evolving landscape presents ethical and regulatory challenges, as stakeholders navigate the complexities of digital finance and its implications for global commerce.
