What's Happening?
According to a report by Dell'Oro Group, significant investments in 6G-related radio access network (RAN) capital expenditures are expected to commence around 2030. The report forecasts that between 2029 and 2034, 6G deployments will account for 55-60%
of total RAN investments. This shift is anticipated to be driven by the deployment of Massive MIMO systems across Sub-7GHz and centimeter-wave spectrum bands. Despite the anticipated 6G capex ramp, the global RAN market has shown limited growth potential, with revenues expanding at just 1% annually since 2000, and declining when adjusted for inflation. The report suggests that the RAN market will remain broadly flat through 2035, as operators are well-positioned from a capacity perspective, with limited catalysts to change the mobile broadband growth narrative.
Why It's Important?
The anticipated shift towards 6G investments marks a significant development in the telecommunications industry, potentially reshaping the landscape of wireless infrastructure. As 6G technology begins to dominate RAN investments, telecommunications companies may need to adjust their strategies to accommodate new technological advancements and market demands. This transition could lead to increased competition among telecom operators and equipment manufacturers, as they strive to capitalize on the emerging 6G market. Additionally, the focus on Massive MIMO systems and existing macro infrastructure could drive innovation and efficiency in network deployment, potentially benefiting consumers with improved connectivity and services.
What's Next?
As the industry prepares for the 6G capex ramp, stakeholders will likely focus on overcoming technological and market challenges to enable large-scale 6G deployments. Operators may need to invest in research and development to ensure readiness for 6G technology, while also considering the implications of data traffic trends and enterprise adoption of private wireless and fixed wireless access. The success of 6G deployments will depend on the ability of telecom companies to navigate these challenges and leverage existing infrastructure effectively. Additionally, regulatory bodies may play a role in facilitating the transition by establishing guidelines and standards for 6G technology.
